President's Lecture Series – Admiral Eric Olson

[ Applause ] >> I want to thank everyone today who’s joined this wonderful event And thank Mrs. Hostler for lending her generous support to make today’s lecture series a reality I want to welcome all of you to the Charles W. Hostler Institute on World Affairs and the President’s Lecture Series Also, I want to welcome and thank our vice presidents, deans, and campus leaders for being part of creating a dialogue for intellectual conversations on campus These conversations are crucially important as we develop the future global citizens, compassionate leaders, and ethical innovators who will solve the world’s greatest challenges Before I introduce our distinguished speaker, I want to share a brief history and significance of the Charles W. Hostler Institute on World Affairs The Charles W. Hostler Institute on World Affairs plays a critical role in the educational mission of San Diego State University It was founded in 1942 as the Institute on World Affairs to inform students, faculty, and the wider public on global affairs Guided by their operating motto, “Let the other side be heard,” the Institute has provided SDSU and the greater San Diego community with high level and spirited intellectual engagement on a rich diversity of international issues and controversies The Institute has hosted distinguished speakers from around the world that have included ambassadors, Nobel laureates, and world leaders The Center now bears the name of Charles W. Hostler, former U.S. Ambassador to Bahrain Ambassador Charles Hostler endowed the Institute in 2004 Now, Mrs. Chinyeh Hostler is working diligently to carry on his legacy of distinction and generosity Now, it is my distinct pleasure to introduce our distinguished speaker, Four Star Admiral Eric Olson Admiral Eric Olson served the United States Navy for more than 38 years He received numerous military decorations, including the Defense Distinguished Service Medal, the Silver Star for gallantry in combat, and the Bronze Star for valor He was awarded a special appointment as officer in the French Legion of Honor Now retired from military service, Admiral Olson continues to lend his knowledge and expertise to private and public agencies Having managed over 60,000 people and over a $10 billion budget He also continues to invest in the next generation of global leaders as an adjunct professor and senior research scholar in the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University Today, we are honored to gather and learn from him about an intriguing topic, the world at night Please help me in giving a warm welcome to Admiral Olson [ Applause ] >> Thank you so much for the introduction But thank you much moreso for inviting me to be with you today I’ve looked forward to this since I first had the opportunity to think about it And it’s much more than a presentation for me It’s a reunion of sorts I’ve got many old colleagues, some of my personal heroes and mentors, are in the room today I’m reminded that nothing ruins a good story like an eyewitness [ Laughter ] So I’m going to have to stay as close to the truth as possible today I certainly thank Ambassador Charles W. Hostler for his gift to this university and to Chinyeh for continuing so vigorously to carry on the legacy of this important Institute And thank you for being the catalyst for Dr. de la Torre’s invitation today So this is a — oh, and there will be a — I’ll talk for a while, and then there will be a question and answer period after that But you don’t have to wait for the Q and A period to interrupt me If you want to make a point, or ask a question, or recalibrate me, or ask for me to clarify something

This is going to be kind of a wide ranging thing today So please, let’s take it where you want it to go if you’re willing to do that So I do call this the world at night You’ll see why later that Admiral Eric T Olson should stay retired I left military service about seven and a half years ago And in the introduction, you heard some of the things I’ve been doing since So I’m going to talk about the world in which we live or might expect to live for what you might call the foreseeable future Although I do subscribe to what Yogi Berra is said to have said, which is, “It’s very difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.” [ Laughter ] >> And I’m not going to go into the distant sort of space age — or actually, this is inside the horizon of the space age at this point on this slide And I’m not going to go back too far I’m not going to go back to what, for many of us in this room was, you know, during our formative years Being — expecting to be on the receiving end of a ballistic missile attack And I’m one of those kids who, in elementary school, used to rehearse on a frequent basis, getting under my desk when the air raid siren would go off Pointing my rear end towards the glass in the window because that was the least vulnerable part of my body But I believe that in my little elementary school in Tacoma, Washington, that I was somehow going to be the target of a Soviet ballistic missile attack And we’re past that Although nuclear weaponry has certainly resurfaced in the global discussion over the last few years But that era sort of ended with a tearing down — the symbolic tearing down of the Berlin Wall and the reunification of Germany And most of us — many of us in this room remember that I’ll focus more on kind of this time forward And I’m certain pretty much all of us remember where we were, where we learned about the attacks on the World Trade Center in New York and near simultaneous attack on the nerve center of our United States military at the Pentagon And brought to us by this man And I’ll talk about him more later, if you want me to I’m going to generally talk about a world that’s in a reconstructive phase The end of the bipolar Soviet American superpower era, where many of the countries — most of the countries of the world lined up under one or the other for political or economic or geographic reasons Is no longer the world in which we live With other emerging superpowers, China foremost among them And a globalization that has meant this bipolarization is no longer the way that the world works It’s a world in which more than 200 Nigerian school girls can be kidnapped And now, several years later, more — 119 of them, I believe, are still missing And most of the ones who are no longer missing either escaped Some were released, but many were sold into slavery Sold as wives at the age of 11 to 14 years old for about $10 a piece And along with those 119 from that original group that was missing, several hundred others in smaller batches, have been kidnapped and taken into hiding Brought to us by this group, Boko Haram, which is a terrorist criminal organization masquerading as a military force They want to think of themselves They want to think of them as a military force And you can see how they dress and present themselves in their formal presentation of Boko Haram accordingly Now this is a group that actually wanted us to think of them as a terrorist force, when they were much more military capability This is the early days of the Islamic State ISIL, ISIS, Daesh in the Arabic acronym Which began under the leadership of former Baathist generals in Iraq who had been broken out of jail who formed a Sunni terrorist — a Sunni-based terrorist group Seized military equipment Seized villages Seized banks Seized oil fields and refineries So they funded themselves almost like a nation Had a military almost like a nation And seized and held territory, great expanses of territory,

and controlled the people in as a very, very strict form of government Fortunately, that capability has been eroded a lot But they were — they remain very brutal A brutality that we hadn’t seen on this planet for several decades And although we have successfully — we, the United States military — over the last few years, with the support of other militaries of the world Very, very importantly, the Iraqi military has beaten ISIS back, but hasn’t yet shouted them down So to believe that ISIS is gone, even without territory, is probably not accurate Now these look like a bunch of guys standing on the corner with their hands in their pockets As they are, but the next day they’re the little green men The Russian soldiers never identified or admitted by Russia to be Russian soldiers But they seized Crimea almost without a shot and almost without an injury In my world of special operations, this was a classic special operation I mean, it was a low profile invasion of a country And then seizure of that country with very, very little resistance We believe that they had gone to school on us, and we certainly are going to school on them Here a nation with a brutal dictator, Bashar Al Assad Fighting war within his own nation against his own people in order to regain — in order to maintain control over his population And as you know, the refugee migrant population is largely emanated from the brutality of the violence in Syria This is Libya, a country without a government, and hasn’t had one for a long time there At last count there is a — in the pretend government, there was something like 36 different parties represented with no ability to actually make a decision and run a country And here in the South China Sea, where China has poured enough sand and concrete on sunken reefs, to build what was first declared to be sort of humanitarian atolls that could render safety assistance to people at sea And now clearly with military capability and claiming the 12-mile territorial limit around it And the 200-mile economic zone and a source of some real friction in the South China Sea And confusion everywhere A murder in a Turkish — in a Saudi consulate and a Turkish embassy attributed to a crown prince of Saudi Arabia And related to that, not directly, but a leader of Turkey influencing our President in part to pull troops out of Syria All of it somehow related to Iran And this confusing globalization of, you know, not knowing precisely, you know, who friends and enemies are And trying to come up with policies to deal appropriately in this complex environment is a thing that we simply haven’t had to do for many, many years Yeah, so Iran an enigma We don’t know how they think We don’t know how they work We do know that they have ambitions to dominate regionally They are threatening globally in certain ways, and they certainly have a nuclear ambition, which may be on ice a bit now in terms of their development programs, but the ambition may not have gone away And the nuclear saber rattling with North Korea is very much in the news here over the last few weeks There’s another very enigmatic country I don’t know exactly how it works internally Poor economy, probably playing the best You know, they’re holding a poor hand of cards and playing it probably as well as they can in order to gain importance on the world stage Migrants and refugees, a massive crisis in Europe If you sort of scale up, the number of refugees and migrants that have gone into mostly Eastern Europe If you scale that up per capita to be a migrant and refugee movement into the United States, it would be about 2 million migrants and refugees that we would have had to absorb over the last several years We’re struggling as a nation to figure out how to absorb 10,000 Closer to home, Boston Marathon bombing inspired by terrorists Politics conducted locally Back to France with a bomb attack that killed, I think,

31 people in this bomb that went off in Paris Back to the United States San Bernardino Again inspired by terrorists outside the United States, but conducted inside the United States Back to Brussels Another bombing in an airport that killed, I believe, 38 people and injured more than 100 All the of these in the last five years A white van driving across the London Bridge swerved off and mowed down pedestrians on the sidewalk, injuring — seriously injuring over 50 And then in the chaos that came after that, three people got out of the van and started stabbing, the by look — the onlookers with knives And we all remember the– in Manchester, England The attack at the Ariana Grande concert, which was really taking off the gloves in a very brutal way They didn’t need entrance to the arena It was in a foyer outside the security zone Thirty — around 30 victims, as I recall Many of whom were adolescent girls who went to see their hero sing to them And kind of terror that we’re almost — we almost — it happens often enough that there are certain elements that are numb to it And then retaliatory This is this is an attack on a mosque in London not long after the London Bridge attack Londoners reaching out to — in revenge to whoever they thought might be associated with those who had conducted that attack So there is — by the way, there is not an attack in Chicago That’s not breaking news That’s fake news in the upper right But it’s not to say it can’t happen There are those who have continued to declare their intent to conduct another 911 type of attack inside the United States The cyberattack in the lower attack — in the lower right is real We are under some element of cyberattack every day And in fact, there’s some analysts that say between $9 and $10 billion a day in intellectual property is being stolen By those who are kind of trading our systems, roaming around through our systems and taking what they want And then the lower left, those circles represent terrorist attacks inside the United States And although all of these aren’t news And all of them aren’t what you would consider to be terrorist attacks, they are those attacks that result in injury or death That are politically motivated or motivated by an ideology, not by sort of a personal kind of vendetta or a criminal operation So I’ll put this a little bit in context And one of the things I hate talking about most is me But I’m just going to sort of tell you where I’m coming from as I go through the through the rest of it And to do that, I’ll take you back to the Summer of Love [ Laughter ] I was coming out of my junior — or going into my junior year in high school during the Summer of Love and trying to decide what I was going to do for a living And I wasn’t a love child It was the Summer of Love But it was also a summer of severe racial strife in the United States These Detroit riots were in, within a year of sort of the Summer of Love And it was a time of the peak of the protest against the Vietnam War This was in October of 1967 I actually went to this rally, not because I identified with all the protesters there But because I lived in the area And I was curious about what was going on And I walked away from it You know, maybe this is me reinventing my thinking at the time a little bit But I walked away from it thinking these aren’t necessarily my people who are protesting against what the nation has decided we should do But I’m really proud as an American that they can do this within sight of the nation’s capital and the White House And that was a freedom that we have in this country that very few other nations have And my mother, probably with malice or forethought, took me to the Naval Academy for a visit three weeks later [ Laughter ] >> And when I said, you know, “How much does it cost?” They said, “Nothing We pay you.” I applied to two colleges And the other one didn’t accept me, so [ Laughter ] >> So I found myself as a midshipman at the Naval Academy and realizing soon enough that I wasn’t about this I wasn’t about big, fast, loud And I wasn’t about, you know, my mistaken impression of the Marine Corps was it was, you know, a regimented marching line Kind of an organization I was much more about this About Vietnam was still going Riverine boats in Vietnam

CBs in Vietnam, small groups working together closely, making a difference in the micro region where they were And a chance to, I thought, to gain responsibility at a lower level The frogmen in the upper left were still a thing The underwater demolition teams that had come out of World War II and Korea And the SEALS on the lower right who were a relatively new thing at the time Formed in 1962 And I’m talking 1967 So they were still a new thing And there wasn’t much known about them in the public domain, but there was enough out there to intrigue me So when I had the chance to volunteer for SEAL training at the Naval Academy I was fortunate enough to be one of three members of my class selected to do that I ended up out at SEAL training, which takes place over in Coronado, California It’s something that I think the city and community of San Diego can be very proud of Is that this is the center of a very important element of the Navy and the broader military At SEAL training, you learn a lot about being a teammate About carrying your share of the load and depending on others to carry their share of the load But you also learn a lot about yourself, about when you have to — and that’s me in that photograph When you have to dig deep to draw that extra strength, mostly mental strength, not physical strength, to do something that you didn’t know you could do Feared that you probably couldn’t do And your mission is to prove yourself wrong and prove those who think you can’t do it wrong as well I’ll tell you that I think the guy behind me in that photograph was my class leader at SEAL training I ended up being in the smallest class ever to graduate from SEAL training There were four of us on graduation day Fifty-four of us on day one Four of us on graduation day But my class leader there was an ensign, Doug Hatfield, who’s here in the audience today Doug, where are you? Yes, so Doug Hatfield’s right here Yes [ Applause ] >> And we all, at some point, depend heavily on those around us to get us through a difficult moment And Doug was one of those guys who got me through many of those But eventually you reach this where, you know, it’s up to you There’s nobody to help Are you going to do it or not? And it’s often easier to quit And I’m going to digress just a little bit to tell you a little vignette about SEAL training Because it is a formative experience for those who go through it But later on, when I was sort of responsible for the bigger Special Operations Force, the commander of the of the SEAL organization A guy named Joe Maguire conducted a study to determine that — we were concerned about the attrition rate I told you 4 out of 54 in my class originally, you know, graduated But the attrition rate over time has been about 75 percent Year, after year, after year, summer to winter, about 75 percent of the people who walk in the front door All of whom think they’re going to graduate All of whom have passed through under — a number of filters in order to get to the front door of SEAL training And on graduation day, only 25 percent of them are still there By the way, a bunch of them are in this room I said some of my mentors and personal heroes are here If you went through SEAL training, would you raise your hand? Yes, so look at that About a dozen in here [ Applause ] >> So Joe did a study Joe did a study about, you know, trying to figure out if he could reduce the attrition rate by finding out more detail about the people who were leaving Because we knew three-quarters weren’t making it We knew most of those didn’t make it because they quit They left voluntarily when they hit a mental obstacle that they couldn’t get themselves past Statistics prove that about 75 percent of those who didn’t graduate — quit, the other were physical, academic, medical drops What we were surprised to learn is that about three-quarters of the ones who quit, quit at breakfast or at lunch [ Chuckling ] >> They didn’t — it had nothing to do with the quality of the food It was– It was fear of failure They would look on the schedule and see what was coming next You know, after lunch, there’s a 6-mile swim, or 14-mile run Or I have to do the obstacle backwards, the obstacle course backwards Or something that they — that scared them enough that they didn’t start it And for me, that was a real epiphany, that most people eliminated themselves from something that had been a dream In many cases, a dream for many, many years, because of fear of failure And the armchair psychologist in me says it’s much easier to explain that you opted out of a program to your mom, to your dad, brother, sister, wife, girlfriend It’s a lot easier to explain that you opted out of a program

than that you failed in a program And people removed themselves from a position of having to do that The other side of that is they did a study on the 25 percent who succeeded and found that, you know, several categories But in the category of sports and pastimes, the most reliable predictors of success were having been a competitive water polo player or a competitive high — wrestler at the high school or collegiate level Probably no real surprise there What we were surprised to learn was that if you were also a chess player, your chances of success tripled [ Chuckling ] >> And so I know I was lucky, because I was both a water polo player and a wrestler, but I didn’t play chess [ Laughter ] >> But you can correlate those I think chess players don’t quit at breakfast or lunch They’re not worried about what’s coming next They’re thinking next week and next month They’re thinking about what happens when they graduate How are they going to do as a SEAL in the teams some months down the road? And so we realized that, without realizing it, that we were really creating a community of more strategic thinkers by self-selection Enough on that I eventually earned the trident, did my operational time SEAL is an acronym for Sea, Air, Land There’s the Sea, Air, Land part, operating at night Night was our friend Operating underwater, Doug Hatfield and I were in the same platoon after we graduated Operating many submarines off big mother submarines This is a very clandestine capability where a submarine with a SEAL delivery vehicle in a garage on the back of it You see all that there Can submerge off the coast of San Diego Conduct an underwater operation anywhere in the world and not surface again until it gets back off the coast of San Diego So a very clandestine capability And because we — there was a free flooding, as you can see by the open doors on the mini submarine, we and we were exposed to the ambient environment So for me, the Cold War was appropriately named [ Laughter ] >> I did get the chance to get outside my skin a little bit as a United Nations Peacekeeper I met my wife, Marilyn, while I was a peacekeeper She was the United Nations employee in the Middle East Marilyn is here with us today And we’ve been married 37 years or something like that [ Laughter ] >> But as United Nations Peacekeeper I was — Americans were in a minority We were in a much broader international crowd I was teaching desert driving, among other things, in the Sinai Desert And it caused me to look back at the United States from a perspective of 18 other nations who are represented in that United Nations mission I said I was up in the upper left hand corner of this map as a kid And my map was this, as just like it was many of yours I knew there were 49 other states because I had to learn their capitals But I hadn’t traveled much through them and hadn’t traveled much off of this map And then I got the United Nations in my — oh, I’m sorry Oops. Pushing the wrong button here Yes, and then this became my map, as it became any of your maps I know not all of you But you know, my precious country, the United States of America, smack dab in the middle of this map Our sworn enemies at the time, the Soviet Union, split between the upper right and the upper left as if they weren’t a whole country But it’s a world of distance and terrain and geography and political boundaries and all the rest of it And that was my map of the world And then I got to the Middle East to work for United Nations My boss was a Russian Soviet at the time, a Lieutenant Colonel in Cairo And the first time I walked into my boss’s office to introduce myself to what was a sworn enemy of the United States, but my boss, a Soviet Lieutenant Colonel, the map on the wall behind his desk looked like this [ Chuckling ] >> And I thought, you know, Soviet Union in the middle and my precious country is split between the upper right and the upper left like it’s not even a real thing And it was an important lesson on perspective, that you see things from where you are And frankly, the more perspectives you can take on something, the better it is Of course, we had a bunch of Australians in the mission [ Laughter ] >> So they read the whole thing upside down So fast forward several years I will say that sort of — back to that 911 slide, I was the commander of Naval Special Warfare The head SEAL, if you will, that also included many submarines and boats and a lot of support on 911 I’d been in command about two years before 911 And then another year afterwards, and I’ll talk about the response of that if anybody wants me to But that was a farmer — it was obviously a formative experience But I eventually became the Commander of the United States Special Operations Command Down in Tampa, Florida This is an Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps joint command, Special Operations assigned

from all of the services, either permanently or for extended period of time to that Special Operations Command It was born out of failure You all — many of you remember our failed attempt to rescue the 52 hostages who were held in Teheran in the American Embassy in 1980 And the crash that occurred at a site known then and now as Desert One, a remote portion of the Iranian desert, which caused that mission to be cancelled And those hostages stayed in captivity for about nine more months The failure of that and the investigation into that failure led us, the nation, to realize that we had never invested in a capability to conduct that kind of a mission The services — Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps — didn’t know how to work together in a very complex environment Our emergency procedures, our radio frequencies, our equipment None of that was compatible For this mission, they never did a full mission profile We would call it now, start to finish, with approximate distances and terrain and all of that for rehearsal Many of the leaders didn’t meet each other until the days or weeks prior to the mission, and it failed So by law, imposed on a reluctant, those are both polite words, reflecting back on the time Imposed by Congress on a reluctant Department of Defense, the Special Operations Command was created in 1980, six years after the disaster at Desert One, six years And then I was fortunate to be the commander of the Special Operations Command as my last assignment I had four years there, from 2007 to 2011 Well, in that position, of course, that was first part of that, at least, was the height of our activities in Afghanistan and Iraq But there’s a much bigger world than Iraq and Afghanistan, for which Special Operations Forces were an appropriate element of United States representation or United States power So I found myself having a — I had a short chain of command I worked for the Secretary of Defense, and he worked for the President So I found myself in a position to talk certainly moreso to the Secretary of Defense, but occasionally to the President About the deployment of Special Operations Forces And the employment of those forces, once they were where we had deployed them What is it, the Special Operations community? Where should they be, and what should they be doing? And when they get there And then trying to figure out how to talk about that, I came across this graphic, which many of you have seen before, but this is the world at night A composite photograph of Earth taken from space, and everybody takes something different away from this But what I wanted to use it for was as a representation of how our strategic thinking needed to change In some ways was caused to change but needed to change more Our strategic thinking, through the Cold War, up to 911, at least, and I think, too much beyond that Was that the strategically important places on Earth are where the lights are on at night That that’s where people live That’s where goods are produced That’s where money is made Our friends lived in that band mostly I’m talking from a military perspective Think NATO and some Asian allies Our adversaries lived in that band Think Soviet Union and emerging Communist China We were very well-prepared as a military to operate within that band, either with or against the people who live in that band We taught ourselves French and German and Russian We sold military equipment We operated against the Soviet equipment that was purchased by or provided to other countries But then on 911, we were forced to the gaze — to shift our gaze south It was no longer about, you know, the mid regions of the Northern Hemisphere, where the lights are on bright at night The attacks on that day and most of the attacks against the United States that you’re aware of originated where the lights aren’t on at night Where borders are less secure Where airports are less secure Where societal conditions often contribute to the recruitment of people for, you know, anti-societal kind of behavior with terrorism One of those where black markets can thrive Where criminality can — real serious criminality can take root And we were, as a military, we were totally unprepared to deal with and against the people who live where the lights aren’t on so bright at night We were very good at French and Spanish We didn’t speak Urdu or Dari or even much Arabic

So that’s the world where rising populations are a real thing A factor that affects how people and nations behave independently and with each other Urbanization, either forced or unforced People moving out of the deserts, out of the jungles, into the cities Because that’s where some opportunities lie But it’s a — it has a discombobulating psychological effect Lateralization Moving towards the coastlines and the rise of mega cities Twenty years ago, there were three mega cities in the world Now there’s about 19, I think, and in 20 years from now, there will be 40 with it or more With a mega city being defined as 20 million or more people in a dense urban area Competition for resources Fuel, fossil fuels first and foremost among them But energy in all of its forms becoming very, very important to how the world works Competition for resources beyond fossil fuels In many cases, the precious metals, often called the conflict minerals Because they occur in places so precise, so geographically precise, that they become the dominant element in that place And the source of corruption and criminal behavior in those places And by the way, the tech world is a draw on these precise metals that are uniquely capable to contribute to some of our technical capabilities Competition for water No matter what you think the cause of climate change might be The truth is, the Earth is getting warmer Ice caps are receding There’s dry land where there used to be water And there’s 97 percent of the of the water on Earth is salt water Two percent currently is frozen in the ice caps And we’re all competing for that other one percent, most of which is polluted at or near its source And by the way, along with climate change comes an increase in natural disasters over the last few years I apologize for the graphic nature of this slide But persecution is a real thing It creates behavior that is extreme And we can remember — I’ll get off the slide — but we can remember back to the Jasmine Revolution that became the Arab Spring It began with a self-immolation of a fruit vendor in southwestern Tunisia That led to the overthrow of that country in three days and the overthrow of Egypt in three weeks Yes, so this is a– this is rising disparity of wealth This photograph happens to be taken in Sao Paulo But it could be taken on almost any major city in the world as the rich get richer, and the population of poor continues to grow Corruption and patronage as accepted forms of manipulating people in certain parts of the world here Mostly about the drug trade as the United States and Europe continue to get their drugs out of — their cocaine out of South America, mostly Colombia And their heroin out of South Asia, mostly Afghanistan And this is human trafficking with the yellow, with the red and orange countries being countries of origin of humans And the blue and light blue countries being destinations for those same humans who are being smuggled around the world Pandemic disease This is meant — did I miss one? Yes? No. This is meant to represent Zika And this Ebola Real things that affected again, how people and nations behave independently and with each other Regional impact on the stability of our planet I put up Dolly the sheep Who remembers cloning of Dolly? I should have looked it up before I came in But I think Dolly was cloned about 23 or 24 years ago, if I recall And I put Dolly up here as a reminder, at least it’s my belief And I think technology supports it, or the studies support this That the rules for using a new technology tend to lag the introduction of that technology The rules for a science tend to lag the introduction of the science by about a generation And here 23 years into — after cloning Dolly, we still have not had the adult level discussion about the moral, legal, ethical consequences of cloning And when you fast forward that to the bio-genetic engineering, some of which is in very advanced stages

in countries outside the United States But certainly some advanced science here as well Where they’re selecting not only the gender of their child But the IQs and physical attributes of their children They’re pre-selecting They’re building them into the next generation You know, if we wait 23 years to have that discussion, then shame on us Rise into the Chinese middle class I don’t present this as a threat This is a factor It’s in the United States’ best interest to have an economically viable and stable China But this rise of the middle class in China Some hundreds of millions of Chinese entering a middle class economic system in the next couple of decades Is an increase in purchasing power and an economic dynamic on earth that we haven’t seen Still a European crisis, and Brexit is connected to that The upper right is meant to be the youth unemployment crisis in Spain We here, in our 17 to 24 year old population have an unemployment rate, those seeking work of about 17 to 18 percent And we’re — and we think that’s too high In Spain, it’s been 50 percent for a decade A generation A fourth of a generation disenfranchised by its inability to find jobs And of course, the continuing crisis of starvation across much of Africa These may be lab technicians searching for a cure for cancer Or they may be searching for that next strain of a biological weapon of mass destruction As there are those who have stated their intent to acquire and use such a weapon against us and our allies And these may be students diligently studying their homework on a, you know, on a military topic Or they may be one room in a warehouse full of hackers, incentivized hackers Who are trying every day and being rewarded for every success to penetrate the computer on your desk At my desk The computers at Wall Street and the Pentagon and Hoover Dam and wherever else So we are seeing a changing nature of warfare, where the keyboard is becoming a much more important weapon of war Wars don’t have to be conducted, from command centers, forward-located They can be conducted or augmented from almost any garage or basement anywhere in the world This is a real thing This is — if you can’t see it, this is a bomber dropping a USB thumb drive One of the most serious attacks against the military computer systems was exactly this It was a series of thumb drives provided by an adversary country for sale in the shops in Afghanistan Where U.S. soldiers would go to purchase these thumb drives And when they stuck them in their computer, it was malware in government-operated computers The government had to go so far now as to actually, I mean, you can tell me if I’m still current But at least five, ten years ago We were super gluing shut the USB ports on every government-issued laptop just to prevent a thumb drive with malware from being inserted in it And this is our government accounting office showing that nearly all new Pentagon weapon systems are vulnerable to attack If you know better than me, please correct me But last I heard, it was about 84 percent of our high tech computer systems have software that originated outside the United States And all of that is subject to some sort of questioning Gangs becoming militias, intimidating local populations Proxies. In this case, Lebanese Hezbollah, a proxy of Iran operating as a political proxy in Lebanon where they hold elected office And operating as a military proxy in Syria where they have been an important military element of Bashar al-Assad’s attack on his own people The flag of Al-Qaeda We don’t think much about Al-Qaeda anymore Al-Qaeda is on the back burner, but it’s not gone And the leadership is still there The aspirations are unchanged When they reemerge as Al-Qaeda V 3.0, probably They will be more globally mobile with more foreign members and dual passport holders And they’ll be more technologically adept They were already technologically adept And of course, this is Daesh or ISIS or ISIL or the Islamic State Again, they’ve had much of their territory I think they’re fighting for their last sort of cubic yard — their last square yards of territory this week

But a lot of them have escaped and will resurface at some point in the future So back to the world at night Maybe look at a little bit different now in terms of these factors that are emerging around the world that affect how people and nations behave independently and with each other One of the reasons that I’ve liked this graphic is because it doesn’t show borders Borders are less important in some ways than they used to be It kind of — it ain’t your daddy’s sovereignty You can — competent militaries and Border Patrol Forces can still defend territorial boundaries But there’s no such defense for cultural, for cross-border culture activity Cross-border economic activity Cross-border informational activity That is just a factor of a much more connected and mobile population on the planet So if you take the world at night, and you super impose on it, what I’ll call Facebook world, this is a snapshot It’s not current I couldn’t find a real current one This is actually about the time of the Arab Spring But it was it was a moment in time showing Facebook connectivity You know, the brighter it is, the more connectivity there is But why don’t — you can take a lot away from this But one of the things that I take away from it is that just because a place may be dark at night, doesn’t mean it’s not connected That in software, in social media terminology, anything can go viral And by the way, it goes viral with a photograph or YouTube footage attached to it Annotated with whatever who posted it wants to put on it No matter how untrue or true that may be In a military terminology, it’s every tactical action can have a strategic effect, and much more rapidly Forces much quicker decision making in response now than before Now if you take Facebook world on top of the world at night, and you take the photographic negative of that, so that light is dark and dark is light, you can take a lot away from this But one of the things I take away from it, is just because a place is light at night doesn’t mean it’s well-connected And any assumptions we have about the people who are there What they know How they behave How they might respond to some sort of external influence might be quite wrong Now don’t get me wrong I don’t pretend that Facebook is the only social media platform But many of the others are State controlled And Facebook does have a global, less controlled presence than most other social media So you’re not expected to read anything on this slide [ Laughter ] >> But you’re — what you’ll see is this kind of Earth with stuff on it When I was the commander of Special Operations Command So this goes back a few years, but my — I’m coming up against the clock here My J5 strategic planner, a guy named Joe Miller I just asked him to diagram how the Earth worked Sort of what I said, but– over the last half hour But put that in a diagram I mean, what are the connectivities, the linkages, the relationships that actually affect how the world behaves? There’s several hundred pages of research behind this Other country research, academic institution, think tank kind of research But basically on this slide, if it’s green or blue, it’s a positive or neutral connection Think a treaty or some sort of an academic exchange or something like that If it’s red on here, it’s a negative kind of connection Think of criminal activity or an adversarial kind of relationship in some way If it’s an oval, it’s a factor in that place The United States almost self-contradictory as economics and Homeland Security In South America, we have drugs, economic development, and a populism with anti-Americanism as part of that And so on around the world But most important, what I want to call out are the three — the red diamonds There’s only three things in the red diamonds, and they are migration, extremism, and crime And where those, two or more of those things tend to come together, they create a point of friction That ultimately has to be dealt with either locally, regionally, or globally And I can spend hours staring at this slide Because there’s so much on this that I think, is important to how we ought to be thinking about the world But in the introduction, you learned that I’m — I teach at Columbia University in a graduate course there When I started doing that a few years ago, I went back to Joel Miller at the United States Special Operations

“Hey, Joe Remember that strategic appreciation thing you did for me a few years ago?” I said, “Can I have that? I want to use it in my presentation to my students.” He goes, “Oh! Oh! We’ve updated it.” [ Laughter ] And I could spend — this is thousands of pages behind this I’m happy to provide it to anybody who wants it It’s the kind of thing with a magnifying glass you can stare at for weeks Because this is not the bipolar world that many of us grew up in It’s a world of real complexity and several points of friction And in the world that I grew up in, the Special Operations world, this is very important That, you know, I almost hate to say this in front of my frogman brothers But the analogy here is that the United States is the frog in the pot And the world friction is beginning to heat that pot And as a military, we still tend to defend ourselves against the spear When in fact, we’d probably be — ought to be getting out of that pot And going around to help turn down the global heat And that’s one of the values that that the United States Special Operations Command and the SEAL community bring to the world now So you don’t wish this away But I think the probability of this is less than it was some years ago The electronic fight The electrons as bullets The rise of increased competition now over the last couple of years against what are being called near peer nations Near peer adversaries in some cases To include — and much of this is about cyber But because we know that we’re on the receiving end of cyberattacks from all of these kind of — by the way, I love this I love these uniforms I don’t know what wars the North Koreans have been in lately Maybe these are all cyber badges But yes, that’s just cool I think it’s much more about this It’s about war It’s about conflict Working with and against people who are so unlike us, in many cases, that we don’t understand even what success or failure will mean to them We don’t know how to bring success to them Because we’re just not steeped in that We still tend to be, in my view, a little bit too focused on the bright spots in the world at night We do have some people who are good at this We have them riding horses in Afghanistan Talking to fast-moving aircraft to drop bombs The marriage of no tech and low tech SEALS who always had one foot in the water Operating hundreds of miles from the nearest water in the Hindu Kush of Afghanistan Still getting in at night with capabilities nobody expects you to have while underwater Technology Unmanned aircraft with the ability to penetrate jungle canopies New and emerging technologies that are intended to help us Yes, so we didn’t know — yes, dogs are — have become a very important part of our Special Operations community and the broader military community We didn’t know that dogs needed to wear oxygen masks above 15,000 feet But we know that a human does So you strap a human– an oxygen mask on the dog when your parachute with him And we didn’t lose any dogs in parachute accidents We lost a lot of dogs in combat, which by the way, they’re treated as a full member of the team when they die in combat Jointness Army helicopter, Navy boats, think of it at night in rough seas Partners. Most conflict now is addressed by coalition teams Still continuing to train and help those who we wish success because it’s better if they can find success in their way with their capability Than for us to try to find it for them At the high end, this is the Iraqi Special Operations Forces And if I had been asked to convene a meeting of the best Special Operations Forces in the world ten years ago, the Iraqis would have been at the head table They became very, very good over the last couple of decades Always wanting to reach out to the next generation because frankly, sometimes, the current generation is impossible to work with But you always want to provide that hope, that aspiration for those who are going to continue to live in that neighborhood after we leave The development of sort of the cyber warriors and again, back to cyber I’m not saying that the soldier on the left is going to transition to the warrior on the right But we are finally beginning to accept that sometimes, the most important qualification

for a warrior is not how many pushups you can do That there are skills that others can bring into a military environment that are enormously valuable And of course reaching out to the population that we simply were unable to reach out to before We created within the Special Operations community while I was there, what we called cultural support teams, for lack of a better term But these were women who had been — who volunteered Were selected, assessed, trained, prepared to go forward, as far forward and stay as long as the technical elements to which they were attached The Ranger platoons, the SEAL platoons, the Green Beret, A Teams, and the like Because we realized that there was at least half the population that our male soldiers couldn’t talk to Couldn’t learn anything from And these were tremendously successful They were without exception, courageous and in some cases heroic Two died in the line of duty So this is all the yin and the yang of warfare for me And I’m not a Taoist, but I do get the things that seem to be opposed at front may not be They may actually be part of the same whole And if you look at the traditional kinetic capture, kill, seize, destroy, form of military warfare on the left That’s what we focused our military on for many, many years The mission of the military is to fight and win the nation’s wars against other nation states But now, it’s more than that in this more complex global environment There’s a lot for the less kinetic side And then the cliché, I’ll say it’s, it’s sort of platforms on the left and people on the right It’s training on the left and education on the right It’s mass on the left and finesse on the right It’s manning the equipment on the left and equipping the man or the woman on the right And in my view, and one of the reasons I like to talk about this — in my view we don’t have it right Right now, our Defense budget, which was released yesterday, has about 94 percent on the left and about 6 percent on the right And it’s probably not changing anytime soon And like the rest of the Ying-Yang, just because you’re the kinetic force doesn’t mean you don’t need to understand where you are And just because you’re the force working with people and solving in a sort of less kinetic way doesn’t mean you don’t need to be able to fight and win in the places where we send you So these are four things I wrote down as I was leaving command I won’t read them to you But I wrote them down as military lessons And the longer I’m in the private sector, the more I realize that they tend to be kind of universal, at least in my view But thank you very much [ Applause ] >> Yes, so it looks we — it looks like they’re going to thank me But before they do that, I want to thank you I want to thank you for being here You wouldn’t be here if you weren’t aware, engaged In some cases concerned Maybe a little bit unsettled In some cases, cheerleading In some cases, cheering against what’s happening in various parts of the world If you’re one of the students, I think you live in a most fascinating time I cannot imagine, you know, what it’s going to be like when you’re, you know, 30 or 40 years from now, what the world is going to look like But for all of you who have some influence Who’ve taken the time out of your day to be here I just want to thank you on behalf — well, I guess just me But — [ Laughter ] >> But I also want to say that as a guy, as many in this room have Who have sent people forward to do things that this nation has asked him to do Some of them are really hard Some of them are really dangerous And not always successful And not everybody came back It is really important for you in the ways that you can to build a strong community To contribute to the law enforcement To build a sports program And the entertainment and the safe neighborhoods and all of that Because San Diego is a military-rich environment And everybody who leaves here, most of the people who leave here, leave some element of their family behind And it is really, really important to them to know that their family is in good hands when they’re gone So thank you much for doing that [ Applause ] >> And in fact, ladies and gentlemen, I’m Lance Nail I’m the Thomas and Evelyn Page Dean of Business And we are just so thrilled to be a partner in this And before I turn the floor back over to President de la Torre and Chinyeh, I want to dovetail on what the admiral said We have a lot of active service veterans and the families who support them in the audience today And I’d like to ask them to stand and be recognized And we thank for all that you do [ Applause ]

>> Thanks for having our six, guys President? >> I want to take a moment to thank Admiral Olson and his wife Admiral, you did an outstanding presentation And I think we’ve learned a tremendous from this On behalf of the university, I’d like to present — we’d like to present this medallion to you And thank you again >> Oh, thank you very much [ Applause ] >> Oh, thank you so much [ Multiple Speakers ] >> So let me put this on, because I’ll look like one of those North Korean generals [ Laughter ] >> Thank you so much, [Inaudible] >> Thank you so much >> Okay. On behalf of the university, I want to thank you again And our presentation is over and our reception follows Thank you so much [ Applause ]