SECC Equity Summit: Six Disruptive Demographics that will Change America Forever

– Good morning and welcome to the Southeast Comprehensive Center’s Equity Summit Accountable Leadership: Opportunities for Equitable Systems For those of you that don’t know me, I am Beth Howard-Brown I serve as Director of the Southeast Comprehensive Center I got an opportunity to meet many of you on last evening, and I hope you enjoyed yourself as much as I did Before we get started, I’d like for us to take a moment of silence and remember the families and children that have been impacted by the natural disasters that have taken place across our nation In the Southeast especially, with various hurricanes and storms that our citizens are still recovering from, and, also, the wildfires in California So if we can have a moment of silence, please Thank you Please know that we are working in many of the states that are recovering still in the Southeast and we continue to keep those families in our prayers and thoughts The hope is that this summit will allow one the opportunity to take stock of the conditions, practices and policies within our states and local context, that call our attention to equity as a moral imparity For some of us, these conversations began with pre-summit activities Maybe you participated in the Civil Rights Journey, which started on last Sunday Or possibly, you visited the Mississippi Band of Choctaw Indians Or maybe you attended or toured the Civil Rights Museum and the Mississippi Museum of History And last night, we had an opportunity to hear about Jackson State and the historical perspective they have brought to the Civil Rights Movement All powerful activities that brought about and required us to take a moment to think, to pause and consider how we’re working to serve the children of our states And also, think back about, historically, how they’ve been affected by our actions, policies and conditions that still exist As many of you know, on May 17th, 1954, the US Supreme Court overturned the idea of separate but equal public schools, in the landmark Board versus Brown versus Board of the Education, excuse me The decision called for the desegregation of schools and was a major catalyst of the Civil Rights Movement with Rosa Parks’ arrest, occurring a year later But decades later, racial inequities still exist with the nation’s education system U.S. News & World Report determined which states have the smallest gap, which is calculated by dividing the minority bachelor’s degree rate, by the majority’s rate for each state Let me share a little bit of that day I was up early this morning looking at that, and I was just amazed at what I found About the racial gap in Missouri, they rank number 10 I’m gonna only give you a couple of them, and then I’m gonna talk about us, as states Missouri’s racial gap was 20.4%, about 29% of non-Hispanic whites in Missouri have a bachelor’s degree or higher, compared to 20% of all other racial groups Tennessee ranked number nine Their racial education gap was 19.8% Then in the Southeast has the second loWest education gap by race of any region, following the Great Lakes Michigan was number eight with a racial education gap of 19.1% In Michigan 29% of non-Hispanic whites hold a bachelor’s degree or higher, while nearly 24% of minorities hold the same level of education Number seven was Washington State with a racial gap of 16.6 I give you Washington State because Washington is one of a few states to place in the top 10 for both equality in education by race and for its higher education system

in the 2018 best state rankings It has one of the highest rates of educational attainment, and one of the highest four year college graduation rates Now for our states North Carolina was listed as number 25, Georgia number 31, South Carolina number 36, Texas number 39, Alabama 44, and Mississippi 47 I share this data to assist in grounding our thinking Now Dr. Johnson will come up in a few minutes and he will share much more as it relates to what the data tells us and what the outcomes will look like The whole idea of this summit is to ground you as it relates to equity-related understandings, plans and actions in local, intermediate and historical realities All of this link to human rights and civil rights It also serves as an opportunity to engage in conversations, to talk with various stakeholders, and discuss in a critical review, the actual interpretation of educational data, and particularly with regard to persistent education gaps among student groups The hope is that this will be achieved by an examination of these patterns and trends based upon our geographic locations, our equity strengths because we do have strengths, and also we have challenges I ask you to take a moment and truly open your eyes to the issues brought forth in this summit and use it as a foundation to plan and work towards helping improve education for our children Thank you (audience applauds) – This, the 2018 Summit Accountable Leadership: Opportunities for Equitable Systems, is an auspicious occasion, one with great promise and greater possibility As we embarked upon the experiences of our pre-summit activities and planned for the summit, we were mindful about offering you an opportunity to refresh your equity-related understandings We wanted you to do that within the context of your local, immediate, and historic realities of human rights and civil rights Sometimes we think about human rights and civil rights as almost the same When we think about human rights we know that those are the ones that come to us just by nature of the fact that we’re human beings: life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness We think about civil rights, we know that those come by virtue of legal manifestations And so we were able to see And by show of hands, how many of you were able to participate in the pre-summit activities? In those pre-summit activities, we were able to see both at play, human rights and civil rights, and the challenge of both at play, impediments and barriers that have existed over time to those rights What we want and hope to achieve through those pre-summit activities was really to get you revved up for the rest of this next two days We wanted you to tap into the very essence of what it means for you to be an educator and to think about why you pursued education in the first place We wanted you to think about the social and moral responsibility attached to being an educator in this field and a leader in this field As education leaders, we are accountable for our systems of education and for those served or underserved by them When we look at what our systems have brought, we must ask and act upon the question, what does accountable leadership necessitate in the way of actions and outcomes? When we think about that question, I want us to turn to two different focus, or sets of foci: self and system When you think about yourself, I want you to ask yourself these questions as you take stock of our performance as equity leaders in education Ask yourself this and just answer it silently

You might jot it down on paper How do I identify? Are there aspects of your identity that you like to highlight among others? Or those that you like to mute? Which ones do you mute? Where did you learn to mute those aspects of your identity? Which aspects of your identity advantage you? Which put you at a disadvantage? What assumptions do you hold regarding yourself and others based on cultural and racial identities? How do these assumptions affect your interactions with others and your decision that resonate with and against, sometimes, our education stakeholders? How do they influence your decision making, personally and professionally? And finally, based on your decisions, what is your impact on equity? What is your impact on equity? What would you have it be? Are the answers the same? I hope not I challenge each of you to be mindful, to be invested in furthering equity in a way that you have not before Over these next two days, we will have an opportunity to hear from experts, researchers, practitioners, stakeholders, across the education continuum We’ll have a chance to look deeply at trends in national data that reflect severe inequities and persistent inequities We’ll have a chance to drill down to more local data that enables us to look at neighborhoods and communities and schools to see where the most vulnerable stakeholders seem to exist, in terms of the volume of inequities that we share I want you, over these days, to think about our education system We know that as far back as 1965 with ESEA, we were looking to ensure that students had more equitable outcomes, particularly students who were from homes of poverty We, in 2000, I’m sorry, 1975, we looked at IDEA, trying to provide students with disabilities greater support We had mandates in 2002, No Child Left Behind We had Race to the Top and School Improvement Grants in 2009, the ESEA flex waivers in 2012 as well Education for All in 2014, ESSA in 2015 and we’re still working to refine our ESSA work And so over five decades we’ve been trying to get it right The students who were underserved five decades ago, remain underserved If we are accountable leaders, we must do better It is a moral imperative When we ask ourselves what the impotence was for those five decades of national mandates, what is our answer? It’s the same as it is today and we know the answer is all about providing equitable opportunities Some of what we observe in terms of opportunity is really definitely linked to what we observe in terms of achievement We focus on achievement gaps and in doing so we often put the onus on the learner We put the onus on the teacher We put the onus on the parents, on the community, on the neighborhoods, but we don’t look at the systems in which those things operate We don’t ask ourselves how we’re doing as education leaders to provide equitable access to opportunities to those students, well all students, but particularly those who we’ve been leaving behind for at least five decades What would it mean if we provided equitable opportunities? We might arrive at more equal outcomes I want us to think about the current system in which we operate and I want you to ask yourself, who benefits from this system? Who accrues benefits? Even the benefits accrued are faulty Because for those who do not accrue benefits, the repercussions and the consequences impact even those that do accrue benefits Our lives, our futures, our intertwining ways that we will never be able to unravel

What outcomes are being produced within the context of ongoing equity? As a leader, for what part of that challenge are you accountable? I like this quote by John Dewey, he says, “What the best and wisest parent wants for his child, that must we all will want for all the children of the community Anything less is unlovely, and left unchecked, destroys our democracy.” You know John Dewey said that in 1967 Here we are in 2018 We have a lot of unloveliness to look upon But I ask you to think about this equity leadership What is it? It is leadership that anticipates and acts strategically to address the needs of all education stakeholders, particular of those of greatest unmet need And it develops a culture that advances individuals in their collective growth, knowledge, skill development and in empowerment, self-empowerment It enables the capacity to recognize and value the undervalued, to appreciate as assets those things that have been misunderstood as deficits Equity leadership is a moral imperative Dr. Derald Wing Sue, in a PBS NewsHour in 2015, made the statement, “When you look at the disparities and inequities we have in education, employment and healthcare, it is not due to the overtly racists or a white supremacist It is due to the well-intentioned teachers who educate our children, employers who decide who to hire, who to retain and who to promote It’s those individuals who are unaware of their hidden biases that are having the major impact on our standard of living.” Education is really about our standard of living We are striving to be better educators and to be better educated so that we may have a better quality of life We are not learning and reading for the sake of it, for the joy of it, although it is joyful, without linking it to life outcomes, without linking it to life opportunities, without linking it to creating a better world, it’s really void I’ll leave you with this What you touch as a leader, you change and what you change, changes you To be an effective leader, is to be an active learner, open to hearing the perspectives of others, to entertaining unlikely curiosities, to questioning long standing norms, to challenging things accepted uncritically, to enduring and examining challenge, to searching oneself for strength and limitations alike, and to applying learnings from those examinations generously to self Often we wanna apply our learnings to others, but if we could start with self, we would be so much further along When we start with self, we get a chance to see what we are bringing and what that contribution is to the larger society and whether it’s sufficient I think we know that we can all do better Such a leader must be courageous enough to fertilize and nurture kernels of wisdom acquired along the way And to allow them to sprout new, different, unfamiliar insight that change us all together, change our current practices and change our expectations and aspirations And as much as a leaders vision must be adjusted to encompass her or his blind spots, if neglected, those same blind spots can impede the very best accomplishments yet to be seen I ask us to begin with self, examine our blind spots, examine the contributions we are making, examine the assumptions we hold about ourselves and others And ask ourselves repeatedly as we look at our data,

as we look at those around us, as we think about our interactions Who’s being engaged? Who is benefiting from this exchange? Who’s not being engaged? Who’s not allowed the benefit of this engagement? And make some actions toward changing that Tomorrow we will have an opportunity to complete, before we leave, an accountability plan, that’s based on courageous collective ambition I want us to muster up all the courage we can today and begin to apply it across these two days Whatever we apply and find present in the plan, I’d like you to commit to implement We will ask our national collaborators to support us in that implementation And the Southeast Comp Center staff will continue to support you in that implementation following the summit We’re with you, we’re for you, and we hope you’ll join us Have a good evening (audience applause) – I had an opportunity to meet this young man a couple of months ago at the Education Commission on States Conference And he spoke, for about 45 minutes, room full of policy makers, governors, a couple teachers were in the room, and other stakeholders And held our attention the entire time It was almost as if people were afraid to breathe because they were afraid they were gonna miss something The data he shared, built the case for me to say, we have to think about something different and those were the conversations I had through that day He has an extensive bio and I’m gonna just highlight some pieces from it But one of the pieces that stood out to me is that, he was listed and selected by Fast Company Magazine as one of the 17 brightest thinkers and doers in the new world of work His current research and consulting activities focus on workforce and workplace implications of post 1990 demographic changes in the United States We had a conversation this morning about those changing demographics and the impact it will have on us and on our states in just a powerful three minutes And I know that in the next 30-40 minutes, you’ll be just as engaged and shocked, and maybe a little angry and it’s okay, but know that Dr. Johnson has the data to support all that he’s sharing during this time I welcome him, I’m glad that he’s here with us on today and we truly appreciate the time, Dr. Johnson Please join me in giving a round of applause to Dr. James Johnson (audience applauds) – Good morning – [Audience] Good morning – I’m delighted to have the opportunity to be with you this morning I wanna begin by thanking all of you for the work that you do on behalf of the children of our country Ladies and gentlemen, there’s nothing more important than the work that you do on a daily basis We are in a war and I’m not talking about the war on terrorism I’m talking about the war for talent And it is incumbent upon us to develop the next generation of talent to propel our nation in the economy, society and world where the new normal is certain uncertainty Only thing that you can count on today is certain uncertainty And the question becomes, what do I need in my toolkit to weather certain uncertainty? Employers tell us that they want workers who can groove on ambiguity because that’s the nature of the landscape It’s foggy out there and they are looking for talented people who can peer through the fog and identify propitious opportunities and avoid the landmines in an economy and society where the new normal is certain uncertainty Having said that, our nation, really the world,

but our nation, every region and every city, including their community and disgruntled representatives, in the midst of an unprecedented demographic transformation The kinds of changes we find ourselves in the midst of, you’re gonna have to buckle seatbelt will deal with it If you ignore them, you ignore them at your own peril Lots of things we can debate today Politically, I wanna suggest to you that basic demography is not one of them I assure you if you’re five years old today, five years from now you’ll be 10 years old Your birthday comes the same time every year You just add one to what it was last year and voila, it happens In fact, every year at my annual review with my dean, I walk in, I come out with a big raise I walk in and say, you know when we met last year I was 63 years old You know what? I’m 64 now and next year when we meet I’m gonna be 65 It’s called forecasting I’m the best at it (audience laughs) We find ourselves in the midst of, we call them, disruptive demographic changes because they’re gonna dramatically transform all of our social, economic and political institutions They’re gonna transform the workforce They’re gonna transform the workplace They’re gonna transform consumer markets And they’re gonna transform the business of K-12 and higher education In the time allotted to me, I wanna talk about what those disruptive changes are I wanna talk about what the trends are We have some challenges and opportunities for us Then I wanna talk about the notion of the implications for K-12 education I wanna frame this notion, I think we gotta change the debate folks, nobody’s moved by social and moral appeals today Let’s be sure that the bottom line is, at the end of the day, helping make the case that investing in kids of color moving forward, is a competitiveness issue in our society We’re gonna lose our share over marketplace if we leave this tapped population of kids behind At the end of the day, they’re the next generation that has to do the good work of maintaining our competitiveness in how about the global economy 21st century So competitiveness is one of the lenses I will bring to you I’m gonna be making a demographic case, data-wise, based on several sources of data One source is the seminal census You know every 10 years, we conduct for the numeration of our population The last one was in 2010 How many of you completed your 2010 census form? Don’t lie, I got your high?? (audience laughs) If you remember the form, it was one page, front and back Then they wanna know the crumb snatchers you had in your household which took you about 10 seconds or about 15 seconds to finish that thing Radically different from earlier censuses because in the early censuses there was something called the census law reform The emphasis was really long because you needed breakfast You needed lunch You needed dinner, about three stiff plates to finish that (audience laughs) They wanted to know about your first born, your last born, or when you gonna own up to Everything in you ever– (audience laughs) they wanted to know made the census long We don’t do the census long form in decennial census anymore because with a different way of collecting data, a new way called the American Community Survey, that is in essence that census long form But the beauty of the American Community Survey is, it is administered through a representative sample of the population on an annual basis, not every 10 years We don’t like having to wait 10 years to figure out what’s going on So for our purposes today, I’d like to rely on on two decennial censuses, the 2000 and the 2010, and the American Community Survey from 2010 to 2017 to give you the snapshot Let me put a pin right there and let me say something to you that you need to pay attention to The 2020 census is about to be a new one Understand that that citizenship question is not to be taken lightly You know, you should know if you don’t, that everything is tied to those numbers And so every time we do anything that jeopardizes the quality of the census, it jeopardizes your ability to pursue the very thing that we’re talking about here today because everything is tied to those numbers There’s some people who believe the census ought to be taken on the back of a matchbook, that the only thing we want is a count We don’t care about your race, your gender or anything else Other people say, it should be eliminated all together, that we all gotta do it pay attention to social media to figure out what’s going on in society Understand that this is not trivial, the 2020 census, it is a very important undertaking Tell everybody early and often to finish and complete that census form, you do fill Six trends, at the top I’m gonna list them and then we’ll talk about each one them really quickly here The South Rises Again, The Browning of America, the third one is Marian Out Is In The fourth one is The Silver Tsunami is About to Hit

The fifth one, The End of Men I didn’t make it up It’s actually the title of a book by a writer from The Atlantic magazine called, her name is Hanna Rosin Preceding the publication of the book, two articles in the magazine, if you don’t have time to read the book The first one was by that title, the second one called Boys on the Side Young men become apparent, while talking about it in just a minute My last one is Cooling Water from Grandma’s Well I know there’s somebody in this room that knows what that is (audience affirms) It’s a song, but I’m not gonna sing for you, but I’m gonna tell you what it’s on Cooling Water from Grandma’s Well and grandpa’s, too Let’s talk about each one of these things, why do people on are on the move The South Rises Again is about the Southern United States as defined by the Census Bureau of those states And red, if you know your history and I’m sure you do, you know that for much of the, well 19th, certainly much of the 20th century, this was an economic backwards region with all kinds of economic problems and all kinds of racial problems It was the place to leave as opposed to the place to be or to come to I actually grew in North Carolina and I went to high school– (audience cheers) (audience laughs) Amen on that Let me go to the other side of the room (audience laughs) I actually went to high school in 1968 which means that for the first eight years of my education, I attended racially segregated schools and I actually remember reading books handed down from the white schools and because I could read, I could see that they didn’t have nice things written in the margins of them in the light But that was the South at the time I remember my freshman year in high school, fully integrated I was an athlete Let’s just say I was on the team (audience laughs) And I remember our first football game was an away game I remember quite vividly, as if it were yesterday, that when we arrived at the stadium, the KKK was marching outside the stadium daring us to compete against the opposing team We beat them so bad they couldn’t spell KKK (audience laughs) But that was the South at the time Eggs on our bus and things of that nature I couldn’t wait to get out of the South when I graduated from college in 1975 And said, I’m outta here and I’m never coming back If you look at the date, you see something interesting What you will note is that from about 1910 to about 1970, the South only captured, far right column, about 30% of net national population growth Of all the growth occurring in our country, about 30% of it was concentrated in the South Why? More people leaving the region that coming to the extent that the South was growing, it was in an excess of births over deaths mostly Then something profound occurred Ladies and gentlemen, every decade since 1970, the South has captured about half of the net national population growth in this country We’ve gone from a region where we speak two languages: English and bad English, to one today that speak over 300 different languages We’ve become the cat’s meow demographically In the first decade of the new millennium, we have about 27 million people to our population, 14.3 million of them concentrated in the South You will note that the second most rapidly growing region was the West region of the country Profound redistribution of population from the North, East, and the Mid-West to the West and the South Our share of that growth was 53% in the South of all that growth What’s going on? It’s all about migration and it’s all about immigration, ladies and gentlemen Look at the South The only region between 2000-2008 where everybody was moving to in larger numbers than were leaving We can talk about all white We should talk about African Americans We talk about Hispanic, Latino, Latinx population Talk about the elderly, the foreign born Everybody headed to the South in larger numbers That wasn’t true about the West region The West was losing Hispanics The West was losing the elderly population who went to the midwest during this period The only group moving there apart from (muffled speech) were the elderly This is a newsflash I was there last week After this cold snap, they gonna get the heck outta there, too (audience laughs) And the northeast is kinda like, when the last person leaves please turn off the lights (audience laughs) I don’t know about here in Mississippi, but I can tell you in North Carolina, all you gotta do is pay attention to license tags Not when you’re traveling When you’re in the parking deck, you see all these people, those snow birds headed what? – [Audience] South – Now some of them I think have the understanding that there was a time when most of the snow birds went to Florida, but a lot of them got them down there and found out that the state was hot all the time (audience laughs) and came back, stopped in North Carolina They’re called half-backs They’re halfway back from Florida (audience laughs) That can change the population I stopped purposely at 2008 because we had something called a great recession The question becomes, well, what did the great recession

do to these trends that we’re talking about? The upper left hand corner, the answer is a slowdown in the magnitude of movement, not a change in the direction and how they are moving A gain of about 655,000 people?? before the great recession During the great recession, it dropped down from the South to about 397,000 people But look at Florida Florida actually flipped during the great recession Always been a migration magnet, why would Florida flip during the great recession? Well, lots of people and nice retirement portfolios that moved to Florida, what happened to their retirement portfolios? It went further South and I’m telling you that they are back in the workplace They’re called the newly unretired So then there will people that aged to the level where they need caregiving support What did their caregiver say? We’re not coming there You have to come to where we are What my point is, understand I’m talking about long term population shifts, but understand that they can be interrupted by shifts in the business cycle and the like Obviously, Florida is back from the like to being a migration magnet International migration, we’ve been pretty draconian on international, however, since 9/11 and becoming more draconian I’m just gonna suggest to you that’s not a good thing for us It’s actually bad for us and I’ll make the case for that in just a moment But I lied to you, I said it’s the South Ladies and gentlemen, it’s really not the South This movement is about four states in the South This movement’s about Texas It’s about Florida It’s about Georgia and North Carolina That 14.3 million people, about 71% of it was concentrated in those four states in terms of driving growth And so it’s the high time pro-life, aggression in the united states It means that they’re not growing like those states Those are the migration magnet states, if you will, in terms of the kind of changes we’re talking about Well, since 2010, 2010-2017 we’ve added another 16 or 17 million people to our population in this country 9.1 million of them concentrated in the South About 5.2 million out West It’s profound redistribution of population concentrated in the West and the South and, tag, you’re it, from we do There’s something called the GIS people in the room who will appreciate this There’s something called a geographic centroid of our population and if you follow the track, the history of the centroid, it has been moving from the Midwest to the Southwest Today the geographic centroid is in rural Missouri I’m predicting by 2020 it’s gonna be in Mexico Y’all gotta follow the dot to see if I’m right Between 10 and 20 and 35 (audience laughing) I have said the 10 and 20 The only change since 2010 is it’s no longer just Texas, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina You have to add Virginia to the list because availability around D.C. is growing very, very rapidly About 80% of the South’s growth is highly concentrated in those places In terms of kinds of changes that we’re talking about, only about 22% of that net growth in other Southern states combined At the same time that we have this profound redistribution of population where South is growth magnet and those states in particular, the racial and ethnic complexion of our population is changing dramatically and the age structure has changed Among the very first changes are two colorful processes what I call the browning of America and the graying of America and both of them are occurring simultaneously Let’s talk about the browning of America first This is about immigration-driven population change To give you some sense of what I mean, to contextualize the browning, I’m gonna do a quick immigration history for you, beginning at the turn on this century and moving forward These are cartograms where we’ve exaggerated the size and shapes of foreign countries proportional to the number of legal immigrants we’ve invited to America Everybody say, legal – [Audience] Legal – Okay because I know there is a lot of pops out of shape when you start talking about illegal immigration Hold your just a minute We’ll head there shortly (audience laughs) This is legal immigration Three graphics: 1921-1960, ’61 to ’86, and ’87 to ’98 Now they focus, if you will, on the top down of that graphic What you will notice is, most of the legal immigrants that arrived in America between 1921 and 1960 originated where? – [Audience] Europe – In Europe Now look the few of them originated where? In Asian countries on small share and Latin America compared to Europe, right? Ladies and gentlemen, that was an intentional immigration pattern of the mid-1960’s with an immigration law in this country that said, if we were going to allow the foreign born to enter our country, it was important that they not upset the existing racial and ethnic balance of our country as it existed at the turn of the 20th century We had expressed preference for people who were field tending, some were paying or (muffled speech) People would could to America, learn to speak English, (speaking indistinctly, this thing called melting pot was supposed to work In other words, ladies and gentlemen, we operated on a quota system that was geographically discriminatory against some people of the world In fact, if you go back to the 1880’s and look at our immigration history, what you will recognize is something called Chinese exclusion law Shouldn’t be allowed to come to America because it would be “difficult to assimilate to mainstream society.”

Fast forward to the first decade of the 20th century and find what became known as the Asiatic Barrier Region It included Japan, shouldn’t be allowed to come to America because it would be “difficult to assimilate to mainstream society.” We justified all of that based on the serial racist theory about cultural inferiority We control the composition of our population through our immigration law Fast forward to the middle panel on this graph, though, you begin to see something interesting occur What will you notice in that middle panel, immigration from Europe shrinks What begins to grow in the middle period there? You see an Asian group growing, great efforts and Latin America How did that come about? It came about, ladies and gentlemen, coincident with the Civil Rights Movement and domestic life We liberalized our immigration law in 1965 via something called the Hart-Cellar Act of that year Put a pin it because it’s one of the most profound pieces of legislation in our history What did it do? It eliminated those discriminatory previsions based on geographic origin, opening up the doors of our country to large numbers of people who heretofore had not been allowed to enter This piece of legislation is so important we use 1965 as the dividing line to distinguish to groups of immigrants in America Anybody arriving prior to 1965, we call them the old immigrants and we refer to them further as the invisible minorities Why invisible? Phenotypically and those an Anglo-Saxon model You Angelo-Saxon name You learned to speak English and all that stuff It becomes difficult to distinguish where you’re from Anybody arriving since 1965, we refer to as the new immigrants and further as the visible minorities Why? They’re from vastly different regions of the world They’re phenotype is different Yes, they go through the assimilation process, but you will always know that they’re different because they’re phenotype is different from the old model Fast forward to the third panel on this graph What you will notice is that immigration from Europe almost disappears It looks a lot like immigration from Asia in the earlier initial period on this graph Ladies and gentlemen, since 1965 in coincident with the impetus of the Hart-Cellar Act, we’ve seen this profound shift in the origins of immigrants, profound shift in the phenotype of immigrants arriving, and, take away, number three, the numbers changed dramatically across those time periods Left-hand side, between 1920 and 1961 we only allowed about 206,000 legal immigrants to enter our country on an annual basis You will note between the 60s and early 90s, it increased to about 561,000 annually Early 90s to the early 2000s in the 800,000 close to 900,000 range 2005-2012, 1 million to 1.1 million legal permanent residents entering our country All contributing to the growing diversity of our population Primarily from Asia and Latin America and the Middle East These are people of color, ladies and gentlemen You will note that the numbers are headed down If the current administration has its way, we’re gonna cut about one half legal immigration into this country We’re headed that direction already Again, I’m gonna suggest to you that’s not a good thing and I’ll tell you why in just a moment At the same time in the era of 1960s, we liberalize our immigration law We acknowledge for the first time that we were a nation of immigrants and thusly said people who were being persecuted in their homes, they are seeking political That they, too, should be allowed to become refugees, parolees, asylees Those numbers have fluctuated over time depending on our orientation and predisposition to allow them to enter Hotly contested issue today, but whenever those people have arrived in our country, they contributed to the growing diversity of our nation, but when we start talking about immigration, we have a mixture of folk through legal channels that enter our country, but if you looked at that refugee issue, a hotly contested issue today, these are the origin countries for refugees entering our country, mostly people of color, hotly contested issue If you look at initial Central American refugees and the like, 1100% increase in asylum applications over the last five or six years 294,000 asylum seekers in 2017 alone, and you know the zero tolerance policy Turn on the TV, you got all these issues today These are mostly people of color escaping all kinds of persecution and the like or at risk of their lives doing things But it’s when people start That’s a law reason, that’s a race which we are .. I guess But it’s when you start talking about illegal immigration is when people really get bent out of shape Now, illegal immigration wasn’t much of a problem in America prior to 1965 for two reasons: the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean

(audience laughs) Since 1965, we had a fundamental shift in geographic origin and some of the water has been relatively flexible in terms of it all So this notion of illegal immigration (speaking indistinctly) much 300,000-400,000 annually the past couple of decades This current interest about illegal immigration is not new It was a highly contested issue in the 90s In the 80s and 90s I was on faculty at UCLA in California At that time, lots of discussion about, we got too many illegal immigrants in America We need to do something to stem the tide At the time the federal government says, well, maybe if saturate labor demand We fill every job in our economy, there’ll be no reason for anybody to come because they’re won’t be any work to do How do we propose to fill every job in our economy? We said, well, if you have something called the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 which said that any person who was in America unauthorized, illegal or undocumented, that if you’ve been here illegally, you can document that you’ve been here illegally since before 1982, we will grant you amnesty, no questions asked Well, how you do document today Your visa …..that’s before 1982? Well, you have a legacy, (speaking indistinctly) before 1982, (audience laughs) they were all granted amnesty How many people came forward to accept the federal government’s offer of amnesty? About 3 million people came forward to accept the federal government’s offer of amnesty All contributing to the growing diversity of our population But understand the numbers as a function of that legislation were actually bigger than that because what the law says is that once you accept amnesty, your family can come along, so it had a bigger impact But what we know is that there were about 2.7 million people here illegally who didn’t trust the federal government enough to come forward and accept amnesty Mm-mm, I ain’t going for the okie doke Nuh-uh, you gotta find me and deport me And they stayed so around 1996, we estimate that there were about five million illegal immigrants in the country If you followed the debate since 2005, the numbers range wildly between 70 and about 15 million people And I can tell you as a business demographer, I probably average about three to five calls per month for the several years from the media asking me how many illegal immigrants there are in America (speaking indistinctly) Stay up all night figuring, blaze a path to the restroom to get on an airplane coming to give a talk, right The first thing you do is ask a flight attendant for a napkin so you can figure, (speaking indistinctly) And I’m not the sharpest knife in the drawer, but I finally figured out the only person getting old and ugly in this process was me (audience laughs) The next one call me now and ask me how many illegal immigrants in America, I just say a lot (audience laughs) The real number is about 11 million people Now when you hear this debate about illegal, unauthorized, undocumented immigration what group becomes the poster child? Who are we talking about? (audience responses) Usually some person of Mexican decent surreptitiously crossing over, right? I wanna suggest to you, it’s a little bit more complicated than that But to get you to understand the complication, I gotta confuse you a little bit, but it’s not me doing it It’s actually the way the way the numbers are down Are you all aware that there are a group of immigrants in America called non-immigrants? Are you aware that there are a group of immigrants called non-immigrants? I know y’all are saying, what is he drinking Non-immigrants are the people we invite to America on a temporary basis They enter America on visas There are about 68 different categories of these folk Tourists, foreign diplomats, international students, and international baseball players all enter America on temporary visas Ladies and gentlemen, if you enter America on a 90-day tourist visa and you stay 91 days, what are you? (audience responds) No, you are called a visa overstayer (audience laughs) Ladies and gentlemen, 40-45% of the illegal immigrants in America walked through the door with papers from the federal government When it’s time to go home, what do they do? They stay You know the terrorists from 9/11, six of them were here with temporary visas that had not expired Three of them fit the visa overstayer category When it’s time to go home, they just blew us off Another six, we don’t know how the heck they got here and the last one came on a student visa and was supposed to go to California to learn to speak alliterative English, but instead went to flight school in Florida And we know after the fact the flight school was a bit dubious of this guy because of his poor facility of English So they reported him to immigration service, a fellow at aviation administration, anybody that would listen: We’ve got this guy, you know He’s gonna be a pilot, but he can’t speak English properly The guy could speak English well enough to tell flight school he had no interest in learning

how to land planes, only to fly them Why would you care about this pilot? But it’s big for business for us Look, the numbers went from about 11.8 million in 1981 right before 9/11 to 2000 to 32.8 million entering on temporary visas The numbers went down a little bit after 9/11 You see they’re back up, why? Tourist spend $3,000-5,000 per visit International students contribute $12.8 billion to our economy annually, why? They have to pay 10-15% higher than out-of-state tuition And they have the to pay the full rate in cost of living while they’re here And please don’t tell me international baseball players is overexposed If you get nothing out of what I have to say to you today, understand that we’re not having an honest discussion about illegal immigration We have allowed one particular group to be persecuted If you’re worried about homeland security, probably who wants to work or take care of their kids sitting at home and all that kind of stuff, probably these folks You know why? They come from all over the world They don’t care any about what I’m about to say, but they look a lot like y’all In fact, I don’t know who’s illegal in here, we’ll find out (audience laughs) And they could be sitting inside in some of the most sensitive areas of our economy and you not know Ladies and gentlemen, building a wall around your country won’t solve this one because of our lack of planning Understand the dynamic, don’t fall for the okie doke in terms of all kinds of tenants we’re talking about We kept immigration pretty low through the mid-1960s You see that huge take off about 43-44 million who are foreign born Who are they? Yes, about 46% are Hispanic You’ll note the second largest group are of Asian decent Only about 18% of them are non-Hispanic white If you looked at those numbers prior to 1965, that would’ve been, what? Flipped, it would’ve been the reversed in terms of concentration When I start talking about the browning of America, I’m talking about the source of your growth and where it’s coming from And so the reason I asked you did you complete your 2010 census form is because that census form asked you to self-identify You were asked a couple questions: Are you Hispanic? If you say, I’m Hispanic, you check that box, but then it says well if you’re not Hispanic, you check the non-Hispanic box, but then they have a follow-up question So if you’re non-Hispanic, non-Hispanic what? Are you non-Hispanic white, Black, American Indian, Alaskan Native, Asian, Native Hawaiian, Pacific Islander, or if you are a two or more race person I’ve already told you we have about 27 million people to our population though the first decade of the new millennium you will note that the last row, third column, 15.2 million of that 27 million people were Hispanic One of the greater 43% You will note that above the yellow line at the top, the non-Hispanic population grew by 12.2 million or 4.9% But the number one point of attention to is the growth in the non-Hispanic white population It grew by 2.3 million or 1.2% Everybody between those two yellow lines and inclusive of the last yellow are people of color and you will note double digit growth in everybody American Indians and Alaska Native, that’s 9% That’s close enough for (inaudible) as far as I’m concerned Where is your growth coming from? It’s coming from people of color and that’s what I mean by browning of America, the changes in our population Of that 27 million people, what percentage of it was non-white? About 92% of it and about 55% of it was Hispanic Here in the South, about 80% and 46%, respectively, of that 14.3 million You can’t beat the numbers for the migration magnet state When I talk about the browning of America, that’s what I’m talking about Move forward to 2010-2017, that is 17 million people, 91% of it non-white, about 50% of it Hispanic When you talk about this changes, that’s what I’m talking about where your source of growth is coming from This is so important to our future, ladies and gentlemen, because what you have to understand is that migration and immigration are age-selected processes What does that mean? It means far more young people migrate and immigrate than old people It doesn’t mean they don’t move They move slower and at a lower propensity (audience laughs) There’s one more piece to this story Please don’t repeat this everywhere Y’all can get put out of the equity business and I’m not gonna be apart of that (audience laughs) Young people are more likely to have children than old folks (audience laughs) Put those two things together and age and that gender of people coming in, higher fertility rates It has an impact on the age structure in your community The median age of the US population in 2014 was about 38 years old Half of us older than that, half of us younger than that What’s the median age of a Hispanic, last row? (audience responds) Yes, ma’am 28 years old How many of y’all have heard in the anti-illegal immigration debate or immigration date that Hispanics

are hurting the healthcare system in America? What kind of patient health problems we have whose median age is 28? Now before you answer that question, somebody tell me what the median age of a white, non-Hispanic is in America (audience responds) 43 years old In your 20s, what kind of health problems you have? You said acute (speaking indistinctly) (audience laughs) But when you move from your 20s to your 40s, your health conditions move from acute to what? – Chronic – Chronic Which one costs the most? – Chronic – Chronic Trust me, I saw it I lost my wife to cancer at 48 years old Her treatment in the last six months of life, $5,000 a week Ladies and gentlemen, a lot of stuff you hear, makes no sense These are young people that we’re going to need to propel our nation moving forward and we are an aching nation without them One more piece of the story, this is for the ladies in the room You can tell the guys to close their ears, but I really think they need to hear this though Ladies and gentlemen, ladies, there’s something in demography called completed fertility I won’t give you the big theory today If you want that, come to Chapel Hill Pays us a couple hundred thousand dollars a year and I’ll tell you early and often (audience laughs) We give you the college version Ladies, completed fertility is when you tell your husband and your womb, go take out the trash Ain’t nothing else happening here (audience laughs) completed fertility for what occurs between the ages of 40 and 44 There’s a precipitous drop in fertility about that time What’s the median age of a white, non-Hispanic female in America, last row, last column, third line, third row? (audience responds) 42 years old What’s the median age of Hispanic, last row? – [Audience] 29 – Now between those two lines are all women of color You will note a 10-20 year gap in the median ages They are 10-20 years younger Where’s your growth gonna come from? Where’s growth? Now, I know there’s some of y’all in your 40s, talking about, hm, I’m gonna go home and fix this tonight (audience laughs) What I say is, in the interest of your conference organizers, leave now (audience laughs) Take your time getting home (audience laughs) You might go home and squeeze out one, but you’re note gonna do what a 29 year old (audience laughs) This is fundamental biology, ladies and gentlemen You think about it You build a wall around your country and send all the young folk home, what ya got left? (audience responds) You got the Bengay problem Understand the dynamics You gotta connect the dots here, ladies and gentlemen This is a competitive issue for us because this is the next generation of talent that has to propel our nation because otherwise we’re aging You see the impact inverse in 1990, 66% of all births in America were non-Hispanic Whites had dropped to 50% in 2008 for the first time in history, non-Hispanic white births dropped below 50% It’s not likely to go the other way because of the dynamics in aging and then of other things We’re talking about a heck of a color adjustment In 2005, 67% of US population is non-Hispanic White, 10 years earlier, was about 74% We now think by 2050, the non-Hispanic white shall drop below 50%, around 47% We’ve talked about the browning of America, that’s where that source of growth is going to come from and change the complexion of our society Further added to the complexity and the browning of America is a profound shift in marriage habits Marrying out is in is about who you marry You know it was illegal for even Blacks and whites to marry until the late 1960s That all got eliminated, but this is not about Black/white marriages, but rather it’s about a more profound shift in marriages The out marriage rate is you marry someone of a different race or ethnicity than you belong to Among newly married couples is double It’s from about 7% of all marriages to about 15% between 1980 and 2008 and it increased from 3% to about 8% among currently married people, marrying someone of a different race or ethnic group that they belong to But who’s gone astray hooking up in strange ways? You see, 40% of those marriages are between Hispanics and whites About 15% of them are between Asians and whites and 15% of the cases, both marriage partners are non-white – Black and Asian, Asian or Latino, and the like Note that Black/white relationships are the smallest share There’s this group called other I don’t know who the heck they are (audience laughs) What’s the most significant thing here? Ladies and gentlemen, the second most rapidly growing population behind the Hispanic, Latino, Latinx population is people who self-identify as two or more races

What does the mean? That a lot of kids that walk in your school door now and moving forward won’t fit into the nice and neat little racial categories we were accustomed to putting them in and they don’t allow you to put them in those things It has enormous implications on curriculum and a whole range of other things out there and we must mindful of that Part of browning is this increasing blend You can see now I think the private sector has probably got us one up in this matter Anybody remember the Cheerios commercial from the Super Bowl a couple years ago? Black guy lying on a couch sleep The little boy rushes and dumps Cheerios on his chest and it’s clear this little girl is what? Mixed race And then the camera shifts from the little girl to what? The mother and the mother is what? White Oh, Twitter went crazy How dare you air your dirty laundry during the Super Bowl I like Cheerios They’re kinda healthy And the company wasn’t that upset about it so much so that the next year, they had another commercial with the same family, the woman pregnant again (audience laughs) You know they say, get over it This is America You pay attention to those commercials on TV today, you see a lot more of these, what, interracial couples It’s a sign of things to come It’s gonna have enormous implications for the schools At the same time all of that is occurring, we are aging as a nation Now, browning is immigrants, people of color changing the complexion of our society Aging, the graying of America, is about the aging of our native born population and, in particular, our native born non-Hispanic white population Let’s just get this out of the way at the beginning How do you know if you’re part of the graying of America? There are four ways, okay Number one, if you have difficulty seeing the screen (audience laughs) You’re part of the graying of America Number two, if you have to go to the restroom twice during this presentation (audience laughs) You’re part of the graying of America And number three, you fall asleep during this presentation It ain’t my fault the your old and you are part of the graying of America. (audience laughs) The graying of America is about three things It’s about changes in longevity It’s about declining fertility It’s about a group of us born between 1946 and 1964 with the Boomer population Ladies and gentlemen, we’re living much longer today than we’ve ever anticipated in our history In 1935 when we introduced social security in America, the average person turning 65 was gonna live another 12.7 years That same person turning 65 today is gonna live another 18.7 years and we now think living to 100 on a routine basis is well within reach and there’s one school of thought that says a person who will until 130 has already been born Why? Well, we’ve got major medical advances that are doing what? Extending our lives You all are eating better some of the time You all are exercising some of the time And now we got this thing called regenerative medicine We have a scientist in North Carolina He can generated from labs, so your (speaking indistinctly) what color you want We’re working on every body part We’ve got these longevity hotspots around the world where people are living and this whole thing about this longevity economy Google launched a compony called Calico several years ago where the whole purpose of the company is to defeat death by prolonging life Big data mining, looking for relationship with disease etiologies and the like that we’ve never had the capability of doing before we had the capability with big data and the like Profound kind of changes in our society in terms of aging We think there will be well over 600,000 centenarians by 2050 Just seen some new numbers extend that to 750,000 to one million range of people over 100 years old living in America Why is this going on? Well, part of it is changes in fertility Ladies, if you need to see how fertility has changed, you have to look at women 40-44 at the end of the fertility years And I’m giving you a thirty size If you looked at women 40-44 in 1976, only about 10% of them were childless, didn’t have any children at all You fast forward 30 years it goes from 10% to 20% had no children whatsoever where you’re not adding to the gene pool at the bottom, you’re not having kids In 1976, the average woman 40-44 had 3.1 kids That’s above replacement level Fast forward twenty years, the drop down to 1.9 That’s below replacement level If you’re couple, you need to have 2.1 kids to replace yourself Don’t ask me about the 0.1, it’s gotta be rock and roll when you do it (audience laughs) You’re above replacement level, 59% of women 40-44

had 3 or more kids in 1976 It dropped down to 28% by 2006 Ladies and gentlemen, this room is a powerful statement of those numbers Ladies, what happens when you all become edumacated and career oriented and the like What happens to the age of marriage? It typically goes up, right? As the age of marriage, what happens to the age of childbirth, the first child? It typically goes up Those two things go up, what are you doing to the childbearing years? You’re shrinking them so it reduces or suppresses fertility When you suppress fertility at the lower end, the age structure does what? It goes up So it’s a profound time of change in our society because of women’s role in the economy and society Now I told you it takes 2.1 kids to replace yourself If that’s the case, who’s replacing themselves in America? – [Audience] The Hispanic – You’ve got one group, ladies and gentlemen You’ve got one group Now understand that whites have had a total fertility rate between 1.7 and 1.9 for two decades Now I’m a bit confused about this 0.7th and 0.9th of a kid because I don’t quite how you get it, but I’ve taught a few of them (audience laughs) But understand that it takes 2.1 kids to replace yourself If you’re not replacing yourself and you build a wall around your country to keep everybody out You got a slight problem It’s called the future competitiveness of our nation Then there’s a group of us born between 1946 and 1964 Let me see a show of hands, 1946 to 1964 Some of you that ain’t got your hand up lying, but it’s alright (audience laughs) Those of us who have our hands up, we’re all between 1946 and 1964, part of the post-World War II hormonal rush in America It was our fathers who went off to World War II, came back home, and got busy after the war They got so busy they produced 81 million of us We’re the boomer generation On January 1st of 2011, the first baby boomer born in America turned 65 and became eligible for what? – [Audience] Social Security – Mm-mm, everything Everyday, seven days a week, 365 days of the year for the past 10 years and for the next 10 years, we boomers will be turning 65 at the tune of 8,000 per day Everyday, seven days a week, 365 days of the year for the past 10 years and for the next 10 years That’s the silver tsunami That’s the pig and the python marching out Look at the data We were 45-64 up in 2010, 81 million people about 20 million people moved into that age group range, 32% growth You will note, the second most rapidly growing population was the 65 plus population, why? That person who turned 65 is gonna live, what, another 18.7 years so you’ve got that longevity thing going on there Big pig in the python, boomer population, and a 65 plus population living longer We don’t die, we just multiply That’s what the silver tsunami is all about It’s the aging thing While the total population growing about 10%, 15% growth in the 65 plus, 32% growth in the boomer population That’s the growth Now, you gotta understand that when somebody tells you that social security is a pay-as-you-go system, you need to understand what that means You are paying in now, but somebody else is spending your money In order for you to get some money out of it, what needs to be happening among that 25-44 annual population (audience responds) They need to be working, everyday, (audience laughs) – High level jobs – Both of your jobs (audience laughs) But what happened that population? It actually declined It actually declined Or we could quantify a fourth area of population decline Or part of it is the boomers who were having children by sufficient numbers But the other part of it is that we missed is, ladies and gentlemen, some of the debilitating diseases that beset us boomers and preboomers later in life are now beset in gen X and Gen Y earlier in life, leading to the early onset of death and disability People get taken out in the prime of their lives These are all people that would be healthy, they’re working, and tax paying contributors to our system, but we’re losing them to lifestyle kinds of factors, like obesity, diabetes, violence, and probably the biggest one is the opioid crisis That’s what it looked like in 1999 across the country, that’s 2014 (dismayed groans) 11,000 people hospitalized daily, and about 100 deaths every day Who are they? Prime, working age people that we need to be doin’ what?

– Workin – Workin, okay And paying to the system, leaving behind orphans and children Then you see what? School systems, locking them into the school systems, or grandparents who thought they were going off into the sunset or imagining retirement from portfolios, now have their grandchildren to look after and take care of Big deal, understanding dynamics That’s how often your aging displaced, you’ve got 8,000 kids a day This has the longest implications of everything that we do in society, ’cause what does it mean? For the first time in history, we now have four generations in the workplace, and next year there will be five Everybody from the pre-war on, in 1940 time or earlier, and these hopefully in love with the roller down home, to millennials who waltz into work at 10:30 in the morning, with two buds in their ear whistling And all us old ones who arrive at 5:30 in the morning That’s the way we roll And the boomer looks at the millennial and says look at that, that’s a bad work ethic, gonna roll up here at 10:30 in the morning And the millennial takes the two buds out, and looks at the boomer long enough to say you can’t spell worth ethic ’cause I finished walking in the door what you’ve been neighbor gazing at since 5:30 this morning And Mr. Prebol was still trying to get the fresh Rotary down call out for millennials And there’s you with an HR system that’s a one size fits all that’s wreaking havoc in everything and costing more money than you ever thought about Four generations, next year, we’ve got gen Z, who’s about to turn 18, five generations, all in the workplace with different values, you can see a number of people still in that corner, still in the workplace across those generations That multi-generational workforce, but most of our HR systems are one size fits all in all of this, so that means that a couple of things for the future of education Succession planning is one of the big things Two pieces to succession planning, where’s the next generational talent gonna come from? Will they recognize the next generation without particular leadership can’t look like the current generation, so how do you think about recruitment? And then how do you think about knowledge succession? You’ve all been around the block a time or two Well when you retire, what’s gonna happen to the college issue that we already have? Well all that’s gonna go with you, right? Your challenge is to ensure your succession to the next generation of things The other issue, probably one of the biggest issues Childcare won’t be the biggest challenge for organizations for the future, it’ll be what? – Elder care – Elder care And elder care is radically different from childcare Childcare’s actually quite easy, you drop your crumbsnatcher off at the daycare, come pick her up in the afternoon But this is elder care And in particular, you can have a loved one with Alzheimers and dementia, you’re gonna have to figure out how to swing this with work Everybody talks about work-life balance We’ve thrown that out there, but it’s gonna be about work-life integration And only about 30 percent of corporations have any accommodation of elder care in their HR, there’s very few public centers and organizations, but it’s all consuming Until three weeks ago, for the last decade, I had three siblings and myself We had eight family members between the ages over that time period of 87 and 99, everyone was responsible for taking care of them The last two of them passed away in the last three weeks, one was 92, the other one’s 99 Over the decade, I can tell you that some days, I was afraid to pick up the phone And even when you pick up the phone with your loved ones, they typically lie through their teeth (laughter) Not because they’re dishonest people, but rather, because they’re what? Proud, they don’t wanna tell you the truth about anything And so it’s 10:30 at night in February a couple of years ago, 30 degrees outside But then my 87 year old uncle calls and says his heat’s not working in his house, he lives an hour and a half away And says, I must be out of order And says, uncle, you’re not out of order I pay your order, I said those order people coming so you’d sooner have holes than be out of order He says, well maybe the system is broken I says I doubt that, we replaced it two years earlier and I just had it serviced right before Christmas because I knew, so it’s been done there Well ladies and gentlemen, he was visually challenged, he was in a wheelchair, living alone at the time and an older house, in an older house, the thermostat assumes, to live in, just standing upright and at eye level But he’s wheelchair bound, visually challenged What’s he done effectively? He has turned the thermostat off But he can’t see well enough to know that it’s what, off It’s 10:30 at night, 30 degrees outside

He goes, (microphone distorts) – Turn it off – He said why don’t you call somebody in the neighborhood, he didn’t wanna disturb the neighborhood That’s how it is And it’s all consuming, ladies and gentlemen in terms of kinds of things And so this is a big thing that’s gonna transform everything that we do, including room for grandma’s will, grandpa’s surgery, how much? Am I over? (inaudible) Oh good, including work from grandma’s will and grandpa’s too, it’s one of the most rapidly growing household types of the first decade of the new millennium Grandparents raising grandchildren All households with children grew by 3.8%, households with just husband wife and their kids, no grandparents, rose by 1.4%, households with both grandparents present and raising children rose by 42%, grandmother only 9%, grandfather only raising the children raised by 28%, almost 29% Now you’re probably thinking about, excuse me, your grandma and my grandma was 97 when she passed away I mean, she almost had an AARP card when I was born, what you need to understand about these numbers, about half of these grandparents are between the ages of 30 and 50 What’s that mean? Now we’ll look all across there, at one of your staff members at 31 years old, walks up to you and says I need time off this afternoon to go check on my wife (affirming murmurs) I had a school recently built in North Carolina for vulnerable children, I have a 45 year old great grandmother that has a kid Now, there are some grandparents like yours and mine, grandmother 87 years old, hanging out in her rocking chair, 14 year old granddaughter out cruising with the car (muffled speaking) Now right now, I’ve been taking care of my mother in law for eight years with a 14 year old niece Yeah Now I don’t know about your state, but in North Carolina, we don’t let 14 year olds drive I don’t think there’s any state in America that gives a 14 year old the freedom to go look for a ride (muffled speaking) Yeah, I don’t know but I like thin stripes, and I’d like to think that they are goin’ the wrong way (laughter) I’ve got an opinion in that process 10:30 at night, grandma can’t get out Oh by the way, grandma was in college at 17, 40 in a career, in public education as a guidance counselor and a French teacher, but now can’t get out of the rocking chair That’s what elder care’s all about and that’s what this grandma thing is all about And you know, I know this because of the school that I operate You know you an have a parent teacher meeting with young grandparents and old grandparents in the room up there showing on the fancy slide like this, half the people can’t see it, the other half can’t read it (chuckling) And if that’s you, too many times in education Don’t know your calculations, folks, you can’t do effective integration period Integration in terms of the child So two things that undergird this that I worry a lot about and I’m gonna talk about really quickly, the end of year thesis and then triple whammy geographic disadvantage End of year first, good news first Women are about to surpass men as the majority on the paid work force In 2010, women represented 49.8% of all the paid workers Women are working on the lines as the paid work force, okay So that’s the good news, ladies and gentlemen, but this, ladies in particular, this is not because we decided to do jobs better There’s still a huge, giant wage gap out there, right? – Yes – Yes (laughing) 82-83 cents on the dollar, some people said 70-some cents on the dollar 49 – Okay (laughter) I learned in my business, don’t argue with a woman (laughter) But ladies and gentlemen, this, in reality is because men are doing so poorly in American society All men Today, three times as many men who are working aged do not work at all compared to 1969 Why don’t they work? Skills mismatches, disabilities, or what? Incarceration – Incarceration – Disability rate doubled between 1997-2009, the wage rates dropped at $13,000 as a controller for inflation, but most telling for you and me, male college completion rates have barely changed over the last 35 years The saturation in higher education is has been 60% female, 40% male for a decade 60% female, 40% male I assure you that earlier, the saturation was not what 60/40, it’s more like what? 50/50, where are the men? We granted 572,000 more degrees to women than we did men in higher education in 2010

I don’t have this school district, but show me your university school system, I’ll show you mine UNC system 220,000 students, it’s 43% male predominantly white institution’s at 45% male, the minority serving and historic life housing at 36% male, and community college at 44% male We had one school a couple years ago that was 80/20 80% female, 20% male, where are the men? Where are the boys? Understand, ladies and gentlemen, that you can’t have stable families, stable communities, stable anything with that kind of saturational imbalance in terms of the things that we’re trying to do here I think there’s a clue to it And it wraps with the triple whammy of geographic disadvantage, this concept exists at the intersection of the browning of America on the one hand and the graying of America, it’s the dynamic interaction between those two that we’ve felt before I’m gonna give you a racial topology of US counties first Those are racial generation gap counties, what does that mean? The adult voting age population in these counties are predominantly white, aging, empty nesters But the school age population is predominantly non white What kind of support of public education will we get? Those involved in K-12 education fight are most concerned about crime, (muffled audio) Those are the targets in Harlem county, the adult voting age population development, non-white, school age population is non-white Lots of interest in public education, they’re all over all kinds of money, tax based to make sure that kids have proper education The rest of the county’s the gray on the chart, the majority of the counties, the adult voting age population is white, school age population is white But in those counties, about 1/5th of the kids would go to school in those counties with kids of color But if you peer beneath the veneer, and look, then that’s where those kids of color are in those counties, they’re either in racially isolated schools within those districts, or in the quote-unquote good schools, they’re highly underrepresented in the college prep charts I would say that the other thing, I’ve seen the picture where the new majority moving forward are gonna be people of color and those kids have changed a lot in a hard place, in the demographically different kinds of changes that are going on That’s whammy number one, whammy number two is at the neighborhood level Those neighborhoods right there are 60% or more non-Hispanic white Those neighborhoods are 60% or more non-white and yellow neighborhoods are transitioning from white to nonwhite We call that hypo-segregation setting an unequal and privately liable to segregation that existed in the year 1954, Brown vs the Board of Education for whammy number two Whammy number three, school age poverty Those neighborhoods right there, 40% or more of the kids walking to school coming from households with incomes below the poverty line Between 25-39% of those kids that come from those households, those two groups put together, we call that concentrated poverty The yellow, poverty rates below 25%, we call that concentrated affluence Ladies and gentlemen, the average kid increasingly that walks into a public school door today comes from these situations, some combination of these situations All three of those things, 9.8 million kids, that’s 93% nonwhite, two of those things that have a high percentage of concentrated poverty, 12 million kids at the combination of 81% nonwhite for kids that have one of those whammies, about 20 million kids, 39% nonwhite No whammy at all, 32 million kids, 24% nonwhite Where there’s growth, where’s the competitive is only at the top not at the bottom in terms of the kind of change That’s a child who’s moving forward, I wish it ended there, but those are food deficits, that’s food desert material right there I had a school in Durham, North Carolina, which highly ranked in all their academic tiers which was a very attractive indicator and I was at a school one day at the end of the day waiting for parents to pick up their kids and have a little conversation with three little girls and made the mistake of asking one of the girls, what did you have for dinner last night? She looked at me and said last night was not my turn to eat She says, at our house we rotate who gets to eat dinner and I eat every third night I’m not talking about some lower county, or some merged-market society, I’m talking about the search triangle, you know one of the most innovative regions of the world had kids that eat every third night What kinds of learning goes on in those kinds of situations? That’s food insecurity, big issue Disciplinary sanctions, three million kids suspended from school and a quarter of a million of them

referred to police for misdemeanor charges as early as third grade Whenever you get a misdemeanor charge, it follows you for the rest of your life And those are Black kids and those are Latino kids And this about blew my mind; we were working for a group of local farming schools in North Carolina, you know, you have to take an end of course test And this is a graphic of who’s in the room to take the end of course test, the blue line is for male, the red line is for female, you will notice a slight sexual imbalance in who’s taking the test Where are the boys, where are the boys? (murmured answers) Suspended, all those kind of things, but I was blown away when I spoke to a group of school tutors who prepare on this exam And they said that some school administrators who tell boys don’t come to school the day of the test ‘Cause they can’t have them screwing up what? – The test scores – The test scores It ain’t hard to figure out where those boys are And what do you get when that happens? (audience murmurs) This is, I’ll come upstairs, ’cause I’m over my time? – No, you you’ve got time – Oh okay, well thank you (laughing) I have a bad sense of time, so that’s why I’m asking the people, because I don’t wanna be disrespectful So what do you get when this happens? This is an enrollment projection study we did for a major urban school district, who looks at about 6,000 graduates end of the year, about 1,500 of them are from the community college Of that 1,500, the blue line is the percentage of kids who are college ready, they don’t need any remedial courses at all, about 25% The red line is the percentage of those kids who need one remedial course, and the green line, they need two or more remedial courses, okay These are our graduates, now, I’m not talking about those who fell out 71% of these kids across that time period couldn’t pass a developmental level math unit as (muffled speaking), only 70% of the 71% ever made it to the starting line of college level math They got frustrated and dropped still finished college or whatever, and they didn’t make it Now those are the ones that graduated, that’s why you’ve gotta reframe these equity measures as competitiveness issues, you can’t compete if you don’t have the talent to do work And it’s not that these kids aren’t talented, it’s the structure that they’re operating in that we need to fix In order to make these things happen And part of that fixing, I’m just stunned I got homeless teachers at my school Homeless teachers, okay The dark black line is the amount of money you need to live in Durham, okay The blue line is how much they make You will note that there are only a couple of people in that school or even close to what’s called a self-sufficiency standard They can cover basic necessities Most people can’t cover basic necessities today on their teacher’s salary I’ll give you three examples really quickly, so one teacher at the top, she has four kids of her own, she makes about $46,000 a year To be self-sufficient in Durham, she needs to make $97,000 a year That’s just basic necessities ‘Cause there’s nothing in downtown Durham today less than $1,100 a month, rent, okay And no housing under $1,000,000 That’s just the way these markets have changed Then my IT person, he has two kids in the school, and an infant, he makes $40,000 some, he needs $86,000 for his family and to make sure that he’s self-sufficient, wage deficient, $43,000 Then I have a teaching assistant, she has one kid, she’s a single parent Hers is about $14,000, the gap between $30,000-$40,000 How are you gonna have a quality education when people, now they’re not homeless in the sense of the sense, I’m speaking top surface, or they’re renting hotel rooms on a weekly basis When you don’t know where you’re gonna stay with your kids and all of that, I mean, we’ve gotta fix this problem You’ve gotta put it all together And it’s depressing I spend most of my time trying to sustain folk and raise money to augment their salaries and the like I’m not talking about an exuberant kind of living, I talking about basic necessities of housing and food and things of that nature that you have to do

I’ll skip this We’ll talk about that later So ladies and gentlemen, we’ve gotta figure out how to manage this transition from the graying of America to the browning of America And we have to be eloquent with an elevator pitch of why this is important No battery, cut to the chase, we’re gonna lose our competitiveness in the global marketplace if we don’t fix this ‘Cause competition from talent is gonna be fierce and it’s gonna be global Teaching an international business school, or a top 20 business school, and as students any of them will tell us, they’re gonna break a sweat and I think when we ask them they say their high schools are more rigorous than us It hurt my feelings (chuckles) But let’s think about that for a moment, if high school’s more rigorous than a top 20 business school of education Ladies and gentlemen, I don’t see how we compete if we don’t embrace inevitables We’re an aging nation We’re gonna need the talent to prepare our nation and to move us forward And I don’t think we’re going to survive and thrive if we don’t figure out how to address what is often called the oldest son’s problem, the problem with our male kids and children Everything to that sake, you know, be eloquent about making that case We’ve gotta make sure the private sector is actively engaged in K-12 education to ensure that training aligns with skill requirements in the world to work Right now, I think there’s a huge misalignment where employers want people who can move on after puberty is more than reading, writing, and arithmetic It’s no question And I think successful recruitment and retention is gonna depend on your ability to effectively manage the full nexus of diversity issues in terms of the quality of the staff and talent to educate kids Are you all familiar with the iceberg of diversity? Here you are You know you only see about 30% of an iceberg And that’s the equivalent of what you see in terms of diversity, all those things up there Race, gender, visible disability, those are the things you can see It’s all of those things that matter All those things that matter See, looking at me, you wouldn’t know that I lost 10 family members in the last decade, including my spouse of 40 odd years, that shapes who I am That shapes who I am (clearing throat) I tell other people, ’cause it’s not the visible stuff it’s all of the other stuff that matters Building a world class education system is about not just what you see it’s all those things you don’t see figuring out how do we get a handle on them and the same thing applies for the kids that we work with See ladies and gentlemen, I have a beef, we’ve gotta stop telling kids who come from a poor background, everything’s wrong with you and I’m gonna fix it ‘Cause you know what, everything ain’t wrong with them – That’s right – You’re all educated people, there’s some neighborhoods I could drop you off in and you’d look dumb as a nail And those kids nowadays are in those environments every day See ladies and gentlemen, they key to success in this society is having the ability to code switch Change your behavioral norms depending upon the situation or context you find yourself in The ability to move from the streets to the suites without missing a beat And that’s a global scheme See, you can’t go to Bangkok Tower and do business the same way you do it in the United States Likewise, the moves and codes of the street are radically different from the code of the suites And what you want to be able to do, no matter what, is have the cultural elasticity to do it all In my experiences there, when you get kids that understand that that’s a valuable skillset, it is on, it’s on Because all of a sudden, you’re recognizing

and acknowledging what? Yeah, a set of skills And that can be the difference between success and failure and night and day in one setting, okay So the goal is to connect the dots Connect the dots, but once you get kids to understand that they have that capability, the cultural elasticity skillsets At our school we say deficit models are out, successful pathways are in What constitutes success? By using arguments not focusing on what? Failure ‘Cause you see, when you look at these labels we’re talking about, not every kid ends up a failure Some parents succeed against the odds Our future question is what are the skills to success or failure, and then let’s build upon success I’m bad (laughter) I can’t tell time, I’m tired I’m ready for a whiskey (laughter) Do we have time for questions at this point? Eight minutes Well in that case – Five, sorry, five – Now see, she just took three minutes (laughter) She said we’ve got five minutes, I’m happy to take questions if I’ve said anything that piques their interests I can answer them, if you don’t it’s fine This lady’s got a question, yes ma’am – I was wondering if you could go back to the triple whammy slide? You were talking so fast, I couldn’t think as fast as you were talking – Well that’s my speed, I can’t adjust it (laughter) – And since I didn’t even get to raise my hand when you asked who was a baby boomer, there’s a lot of us, (speaking off mic) there’s a lot of us who might wanna see that again, the triple whammy? – Yeah, thank you – Yes ma’am – [Woman] Do you need this? – Okay (murmuring) – The one that has the two – The table – The table? – Yeah – Okay – And could you talk through that again – Yeah, for $200 – Right. (laughs) – So the 9.8 million kids are growing up in a county that they’re either little political financial support, they’re in a neighborhood that is hypersegregated and they’re from a concentrated poverty household The two things, they could be any two of those combinations to be compounded – Repeat those? What are they, high percent– – High percent concentrated poverty and then a racial generation gap, accounting it as low political-financial support for their education Locked into the gray and brown up in there Did they get the paper, Dr. Kazukon? – Not yet – She’s gonna send you a paper with all that, right Doctor? – I sent it to all of your peers – Oh, send it to these folks, ’cause there’s plenty on this stuff Like me, runnin’ folk’s business – Dr. Johnson – Yes, ma’am – Can you tell us a little bit about your school, you’ve referenced it several times – Yeah, so we have a school called Global Scholars Academy in Durham, North Carolina It’s a K-8 laboratory school, which is a big test site for new ideas and integration for how to educate vulnerable kids It’s a public charter school, which means that we have a lottery for the slots So it’s a built in natural experiment, ’cause some kids that get in, other kids don’t And it’s unfortunate that you have to use that language But we wanna isolate the impacts of the things that we do, so we’re an in the day, year round school, we start at 7:00 in the morning, go to 6:00PM daily We’re 190 days, we never close on intersections, because our kids have no place to go, they don’t have (muffled speaking) We guarantee kids four things at our school Protection, affection, correction, connections And that’s all attached, all big critical theories and all that’s going on in public education and what you need to do to fix it We partnered with a church that invested $10 million to build the school, it’s a 48,000 square foot facility,

upper school, lower school, 12,000 square foot gymnasium with a walking track It has a fitness center, it has a music (creaking) studio It has an herb garden, it has a two acre public playground for a five star early childhood learning center and then K-2 for our kids at the school It focuses on success not failure We teach Mandarin Chinese beginning in Kindergarten, and I assure you if you come to visit and you get anyone you might want to come, there will be some kid, probably a first or second grader who will welcome you to the school He will be assigned to you, and he or she will know all your business before you get there (laughter) Because that’s what, it’s our job, the kinds of competitive intelligence that you need out there to prosper US Senator, Senator Burke, came to visit the school and we assigned a little second grader to host him So he was out there walking him around the school, the kid walked up, welcomed Senator Burke in Mandarin Chinese, translated it into English and said welcome to Global Scholars Academy, how may I help you? And Senator Burke proceeded to tell him that he was a senator who represented the district, the kid interrupted him and said, I know who you are (laughter) You went to Great Fox, right? Senator Burke said yes, he said you played football there, right? Yes, he says you were a lineman, right? And he nodded and said yes Kid said you must not have been very good, because you went from quarter back to a running back (laughter) So we prepare kids to be globally ready, to this extent that year round, we have a set of extended day activities around career options that are going be moving them forward in cybersecurity, forensic accounting, food systems, and a range of others And we do something called the GSA entrepreneur startup every year Where our kids, students from our MBA program work with the kids on their venture ideas And they have a venture competition at the end of every year that is actually an award for kids See, we’ve gotta stop putting kids in a box and they don’t fit, so they’ve got attention deficit disorder The most creative people have attention deficit disorder, they’ll drive you crazy, because they’ve moved on to the next before you do And so we all will say at GSA, we celebrate the free element of discovery and we are a place where kids can think crazy thoughts Now I tell you they may be bonafidely crazy, but what I know is that next revolution that does that, transform, that’s the way innovation works And so we create a safe haven for kids in our community and we connect them with what is called bridging social capital, about protocol bridging social capital It’s not your strong ties that matter, but rather it’s the strength net ties The more diverse your networks are, the more geographically advanced that they are, the better off you are So we build around the successful pathways theory, oppositional culture theory, resiliency theory and a whole range of other things too, to make things happen – [Patron] Your achievement day, do you wanna talk about that? – We just had one kid this year earn a $57,000 scholarship to one of the most prestigious boarding schools in America And so I’m not gonna say that we’re knocking it out of the park The reason that I’m not gonna say that is because every day is a new challenge Our biggest challenge today is what I call policy induced trauma We just had a Latino parent walk into the school and tell the head of school, let me tell you how to help my kid (speaking indistinctly) What school of education with parents, any administrator, respond to that? Or better yet, what kid is gonna learn anything that way when we don’t know whether your mom or your dad is gonna show up (speaking indestinctly)? That’s policy induced trauma And so we’ve got (speaking indistinctly) but we’re making progress with now we have every year, a lot of parents who have exceptional children who don’t like the school system that they’re in so we get a lot of those people coming in which raises the cost of what we do The other thing that I would tell you quickly is a lot of charter schools that have lotteries, you’re supposed to have a lottery, every kid has equal access, and a lot of schools will engage in post moderate screening Where they screen out the kids that they really don’t want

That’s about 55% of the kids in some instances Now think about this for a moment, ladies and gentlemen, you won the lottery, and if there’s one thing fixed income people know about, it’s the lottery You won the lottery and then somebody tells you they changed the game afterwards We don’t do that If you get in, we take you You’ve gotta have serious, extreme, exceptional needs that we can’t serve but that adds to the cost, it impacts your (audience murmurs) and so for us it’s about progress Two years in a row now, the financial crisis (speaking drowned out by coughing) It’s hard work and it costs a lot of money We’re a $3.8 million operation We get 60% of it from state feds – But you’re doing something – Yeah (crosstalk) (laughing) Ladies and gentlemen, it’s not for the faint of heart When you have to raise 40% every year just to keep it going I mean, it shouldn’t be This is the next generation talent that’s gotta propel our nation, but if you’re committed to it, that’s what you have to do I feel good some days, but other days I go home and get under the bed, won’t come out til the next day Because it’s just that tough When you’ve got a homeless teacher with four kids and she doesn’t know whether she’s gonna get to eat tonight, and you expect her to show up bright eyed and bushy tailed the day after that And you don’t know that until you get there every day and deal with this, it’s a moving target kind of thing You know, or it’s something else, because that’s the nature of the landscape And I think the more we have the power of those kinds of stories to tell people who are policy makers, it’s gonna make it real for folks That’s the other concern for me Yes ma’am – I think we’ve seen a good increasing number of schools or I hope, that are looking to the kind of cultural elasticity, cultural competency in their classrooms and their leaders, but I feel like I don’t see a lot of, and you just described a great example The examples are really what’s lacking, and so what does that look like, how does that look like? And also the training and preparation for teachers in order to get them into a place where they can provide that kind of education and I wonder if you have some examples, beyond your school, of what that looks like or places that are doing a good job preparing teachers and and workers to do that kind of work? – So the other thing that I have is a K-12 innovation idea lab, that has the leading figures in Georgia/Carolina and all those higher education institutions around the country That’s what we do is think about these kinds of integrations and the like, so that program, protection, affection, correction, connections, I’m actually trying to get that going around the country So we’re doing some of that It’s upsetting when people say that they’re moving For me, I believe it’s not fair for the kids If you’re bringing kids in, and they’re pushing (noise drowns out speech) So I wouldn’t worry about places that are playing fair So we need to build those places (creaking drowns out speech) – [Woman] Your camera isn’t on, is it? – When we’re talking about what I call a franchise enrollment (speaking indistinctly) (creaking) I appreciate you all for coming, thank you very much (applause)