Expert Lecture Series by Prof Xiaohua Xia

Oh your excellency embassies and diplomatic court my fellow colleagues representations from different stakeholders that we have been engaged during the years all protocols observed it is really my privilege to be able to speak on this this platform when I was preparing this thing I start since yesterday start to have two worries the first worry is there since yesterday and lost a little bit of my voice the the second worry was that I was afraid that during my presentation that I have to say hello to that lose and then I have to like OpticsPlanet but then I was assured by the met that these won’t happen because we have a diesel generator standing by so let me start by telling you everybody knows about this it’s calm no shedding stage 1 stage 2 and stage 3 so stage 1 up to 1,000 megawatt stage 2 you up to 2,000 and stage 3 up to 4,000 so this is a coming from these picture so a scrum can generate at the moment at about three thousand thirty thousand megawatt and the white you have a variation of demand over the summer and over the winter so in summer you constantly lead another to 1,000 megawatt and then these rises to 2,000 during the evenin peak that’s why we always experiencing something now like a loved one and no to stage 1 and stage 2 no shedding and in winter so we constantly let 2000 and that it’s going to go up to 4000 6000 to to the evening peak so if you feel that it’s bad enough now so do you prepare for the worse to come what does it mean by four thousand four thousand is something that you can expect to coming out of them topi which has about building capacity or 4,000 to 800 and then four thousand is also something that we have done over the past ten years let me tell you a good story Eskom Edie is in demand saving over the last ten years since 2004 and this is a verified savings that saved us up to four thousand it means if you would not have this we would go into immediately stage three no jetty so so let’s look at the very simple economics because these are all in the public domain so the a dsm program has a total investment of fifteen billion in the last ten years and then it is saved four thousand megawatts which is very clean you don’t feel it and then this is equivalent to about three three point seven five million per megawatt comparing Elizabeth to P so the total projected investment is about 170 billion according to Reuter and then we know that we have a initial budget of 77 billion I hope that is gonna stop at 170 billion and the capacity of 484 4800 and then this is equivalent to about 35 million rent per megawatt of power so comparing with this we could conclude very simply 15 billion definitely great is greater than 170 billion so we we have already approved this one so university is a place that we teach in mathematics and science and engineering but university is also place that we challenge mathematics so having done this introduction let me comment on the huge contribution made by the University of Pretoria so I listed four big names in here the late professor jen-mei Gustav Ratliff and both of them coming from CNS center of new energy systems and also professor Eddie Matthews and LG Acropolis so I think that for a lot of guys sitting here we know these four people and then they are all coming from the University of Pretoria and then they actually you know when I joined the university professor Eddie method he still with the

university I think at the three of three guys already left University but then they paved way for Eskom to introduce the ideas in program in 2004 2004 so this is what I’m going to talk today so I’m going to tell you what is EDS em and then how we can classify them and then like go further to tell you what is what is our research in CNS and then lastly maybe probably I’m going to spend half of my time telling at this time of of crisis do I still have option and then what are these options so the whole game is about balance the demand and supply so in the current circumstances we either have to increase the power supply the Pope know power stations including renewable ones and to increase generating capacity from existing power plants and a decrease Eskom or the generators overuse or to reduce the demand to manage the demand side to decrease the usage or to increase its own supply or we do both of course today I will be only talking about the demand side so in the United States energy efficiency and demand side management it’s classified into five big categories conservation note management few substitution or few switching no wrote or growth and self generation so let me just very quickly go through each one of them it’s very clear conservation is to use energy less more efficiently to reduce to save it load management is to reduce or shift the peak demand from peak to off-peak so we’ll be talking about this one giving the Eskimos current situation so it can consist of peak clipping valley filling and load shifting or flexible a u-shaped the load shake and then no bloat of course is to improve the productivity and the environmental compliances with the increasing sell of kilowatt hours or kilowatt from Eskom so it can be something like promoting the electrical infrared technologies as an example to heat all the dry the products such as wood paper and textile and then the benefit of course is to increase utilities market share and then to fill the valleys to increase the peaks and to reduce the usage your fossil fell of course in the current circumstances this is probably less relevant in in South Africa but remember that load boat is one of the interventions that we can do at the demand side fear substitution or fuel switching is the process of switching from one field to the other so it’s very clear self generation is to generate heat or power produced for part or complete use of the customers all needs so it can be both within the the clients or the customers all processes in that case we talked about cogeneration and it can be self generation from completely outsized fear so then we are talking about captive power plants the benefit of course is to reduce the demand on a grid and reduced transmission losses so this is more or less five bit calibration categories that that the United States and Europe must probably also takes the same approach but for us we feel it we feel that it is more beneficial to classify energy efficiency and demand side management in four big categories in terms of technology equipment operation and performances so when you talk about energy efficiency you talk about technology efficiency equipment the efficiency operational efficiency and performance efficiencies and then you can put the whole puzzle in this way so in you have technology side you look at conversion transmission those rays of compare conditions and they are the equipment’s are you look at equipment specifications and and how to compensate the deviations and also you do proper maintenance so that that the equipment behaves what is supposed to be under ideal conditions at the operational level you look at system coordination and then also the coordination with respect to time and also the interface of human with respect to the machine so you look at the operational levels and then at the promise performance level you look at technical performances in terms of energy or power all the skills or the so-called soft kilowatt hours or the theft or losses which constitute

what we call long technical performances so the advantage of reclassify that into port is that first of you you dip it provides a common platform for four levels of activities at the same page so you have activities at the unit level system level and a management management level and the policy level so for instance if you approach the whole thing linking all these puzzles together from the outside you’re looking at financial viability so you look at energy analysis audit design or planning or targeting or metering or verification you can also approach it from the inside of course this is our interpretation you’re looking at energy modeling energy optimization and baselining and then you built some kind of technical feasibility viability so the second advantage is that you can do easy functionality groupings for instance that technical impacts can be grouped in this way and then the time impact in terms of power or demand or the issues related to behavior change of course you can group the in terms of technical performances and long technical performances a third advantage which is very very relevant for us working in a university environment is that these framework provides us with a very focused research topic selection for our as postgraduate students so for instance at the Masters level we look at typically a combination of two function blocks for instance for from chapeau fine stardom he look at the model predictive control strategy for load shifting in water pumping who is a possibility of reducing the maximum demand so this is a highly related to how to coordinate the system with time with better energy use OPA power use with time and his performances in terms of maximum demand Oh duck acronym she look at her master’s thesis she look at an improved robust model for the generator as the equipment as well as its maintenance schedule and they this is related to these two fanship blocks this constitute more or less her master phases us from ma largest most of the thesis he look at possibly a multiple objective optimization model for building energy efficiency decision-making so which is related how to coordinate different retrofitting components in a building or in a set of buildings and how the energy performs with respect to that selection so at the PhD level for instance you look at probably more than two functions blocks you look at property four or more puzzles the linking together in Hana Rika PhD thesis that she’s gonna defend shortly she look at the minimum cost solutions of PV diesel battery hybrid system which can stand a toe which can be tied to the grid so which is related to the sizing of the system and also how the system interacts with time we make better use of for instance the time of use tariff and also the performances in terms of energy and power in puppies to achieve theses he’s going to look at more at the optimal energy management of a crusher or for Joe Prussia and then this is related to that equipment under specific idea of conditions as well as how it coordinates with other parts of the system and also coordinate with the time of use tariff in in terms of his energy and power performances and then the other example that I will run through is shemin’s PhD thesis that hopefully he’s going to also defend that at the second half of this year he look at the optimal sampling plan for theme Development Mechanism this is a lighting project qualifies for CDM registration and then with a population dynamics so it consisted probably also for function blocks using looking at different ways of measuring the system so this is just give you highlight that some advantage that we want to reclassify energy efficiency into polled so I want to take you through one may be going through a little bit of detail one example app a study done by Li dream he’s also sitting here which is about Xsara scope and officier ssin process so in the background you could see this

last picture because normally XR doesn’t have a very clear picture of of such kind but you could see that cows are transported to the beneficiation plant and then a poor activity of coal washing happens inside this building so this is of course it’s a it’s a it’s a it’s a it’s a fake picture but this is a real picture so so this picture you could see these building sorry you could see this building just behind of us it’s about 40 to 50 meters high about five to six floors high so the P process of course is a coke beneficiation or co washing circuitry so the coke comes into the beneficiation plant it goes through several P processes into sizing cleaning and a dewatering and also the co is transformed from the core size into intermediate size at refine and fine sizes and then of course if you look at the whole whole process the key process is the dense medium cyclone so if you look into the dense medium cyclone process so you could deceive that the run of them the run of a mine coke comes into a mixer or mixing box and that Co then goes into the dense medium cyclone and then the rotational movement of the dense medium cyclone generates a centrifugal forces and then so that the lighter part of the particle you know a film is in the middle of that cyclone so exist from the better top part of the cyclone and then the heavy particles stays at the edge of the cyclone and then exits from the bottom part of the socket and then bows goes through a screening process and there you have rejects and of course you have the product in terms of what we call fines and then of course the remains of that thing goes through a median corruption process through a median corrected medium pomme going through these circulation and it brings back to the distributor and mixing pops and then go through the process again so this is this is of course xrs for engineering process and then this technology of wet washing is probably hunt hundred years old maybe and longer so there are two issues with this very old design the first one is energy efficiency so you could see that the medium pump supplies the dense medium to this separation cycle who are constantly over pumping so Forex ara I think that we our estimate is always about four times oversized and then a second issue is the separation efficiency so there’s always a lack of men appealability of the relative density of the medium to improve the product so to improve energy efficiency littering in she suggested a pump storage system is a which is a very simple idea he reckons that if you introduce a sedentary medium tank in the middle of that building say second or third flow of that beauty you capture that water before it comes to the bottom and they aged use a secondary pump which brings this water to the top and then in that way you can reduce the height of the water circulation so of course then he introduced another option is that he introduces a third into story a third storage tank at the top of that building so both options gives you very good results from from this analysis for instance that electricity cost and energy consumption carry reduce more than half if you use a certain type of this storage tanks so this reduction can be much larger if you have as the secondary tank to be higher of course there is a balance that you need to catch enough water and also a larger storage of t3 is used and then additional advantages that you can use these set up to shifted the power from the peak to off-peak because you have the storage so to in to improve separation efficiency leaching introduced the control system approach so I bring the modeling of the dynamics of the dense medium cyclone so if the dense medium factor model is taken from another study which is also carried in this university by Jonasson mayor from xsara and professor yang prey in the control group so we can write lastly what they have described in here into a differential equation and of course there you will have manipulate variables you and then the state variables the state variable represents the component of air suffer moisture and the volatile

the percentage you see in the fire in the product and the regions of course the manipulation variable is the relative density that it can play around hopefully to control something so this is a apologizer game for for professor that array you mention that i should keep away from mathematics I promise you this is the one of the two slides that I have from Mathematica so that the first one the first one have gave you the wrong mathematics thing I have few obliged to give you some character mathematics I won’t tell the audience that in the university at least some groups are doing right mathematics okay so Legion then went goes further to do the optimization at the operational level so he introduces two controllers feet will feed forward controller and the feedback controller in terms of what we call model predictive control so the feed forward controller uses sample measurement composition percentages of the run of micro feet to that the DMC the closed loop model controller they uses sampled and delayed state variables try to do some correction of the control systems so they are of course challenges to implement these two controllers so firstly the measurement of the composite percentages in the DMC in the overflow and underflow is time-consuming and a very expensive I can tell you and then I know the Xsara is thinking about introducing some equipment to do these more rapid measurement we are talking about in terms of 10 million euros so if it and it is also delayed because the measurement delay can often many men hours so up to four hours of course if you have these 10 million euro then we can reduce that time delay to about five minutes it is sampled because the data is sampled at that sampling instance and then it’s there’s no measurement any further so in his proposal then he used the state of that dense median cycling during the period that that’s days measurement to predict what is available when there’s no measurement so that’s what he caught not a pretty flea control so he also picked a lot of extensive simulations to show the effectiveness of these two controllers his idea is to to evaluate the impact of vestment delays for instance in the in this graph on the controller with 5% of modeling uncertainties so you could see that this is the open-loop controller or the feed forward controller so you see that without compensation there drifts the way but the steers set with something like 2.09 percent of deviations in terms of absolute name value and of course if you introduce the closed-loop controller MPC with a large delay of two hours you’re sitting with a much better deviation from from the from the setpoint so you want to reach a set point of cop and percentage of 75 percent of course he also shows that the shorter the measurement delay the better the result is you see that this error goes to smaller and smaller and of course based on this that he’s able to do a life cycle cost analysis for the two options so this is a simple payback period calculation and then this is done that with assembly that he don’t do additional and the flow or overflow measurement so without introducing those equipment you can do manually the cost capital investment the cop capital cost for the exist this exists insisting is about it’s about 2.25 million and then of course option one you are sitting with a much better and much bigger a capital cost option – even bigger but then the operational cost from existing ones you have a considerable reduction in terms of cost and of course the maintenance cost will go hard definitely because you have you have more dedicated equipment and controllers to maintain so then you do have accumulated savings this gives you an easy way to calculate how much you can get your money back so forth option one is looking at about two point six eight years of payback and if or option two of three point three minutes yes of course this will take time to happen but then what is nice about this whole process of engaging xsara is that we quickly identify the so called fit wings for Xsara so for instance that these are the ten projects that we currently run with Xsara so if the first five you look at Xsara feels

that that it will be very much beneficial to introduce energy efficiency specifications for a lambo of their equipments I think that this is going to be the first in the country that has a company-wide specifications for this is probably 80% of their equipment and then they are also looking at different ways of resizing the pumping system the Crush assisting and the conveyor belts and then we are helping to design the true pits or the methodologies to do that of course then seen as other research areas can be built around the same principle based on the classification of port so I want to go through very quickly what are the five big categories of activities that we are doing in CMS so our first big cluster of activities is on industrial energy systems it can be mining the heavy haul trays in terms of speed regulation few sweet few saving and safety driving and the water pumping systems as well in terms of pumping efficiency and also different combinations of operational control secondly we look at building energy systems we have a building energy management system developed by ourselves and we have specifically water heating systems air conditioning systems investigations and then we also put a lot of our research effort into building retrofitting and maintenance planning there’s a lot of optimizations going in there traditionally of course power systems you look at generation dispatching maintenance planning the electricity market and a demand response I know that there’s a lot of jargons but these are still at least the terminology explains itself what they are so the measurement verification so we offer a service to the municipalities and Eskom so these are all practical project we also run in that for the CDM projects and a further to these services that we offer we look at the more investigating issues like a socio economic aspect of the evaluation of energy systems and the Scientific American isms of measurement a verification and lastly renewable and a sustainable energy so we look at different type of assistance that we have I have mentioned such as pvd’s or battery hybrid system the pv battery grid tied system the pv heat pump system of course like how this renewable sources can be harvested by by the grid in terms of smart grid for instance so just to give you some highlights about the achievement in the past six or seven years so seen as was awarded to host the national hub energy efficiency and demand side management since 2008 and then this is already in our second contracting period and then we are also hosting the agora energy efficiency chair started from 2012 and then we published quite last year over this past few years 225 papers 50 journal papers scenes and then we are building up the momentum so currently I think at the current two years we are looking at about 20 or 18 papers per year so it’s quite productive and then we also edited one book so we have currently a full-time student of eleven masters and a 17 PhD level and then we have then probably the equal number of part-time student and then the student graduated in the past past five years so we graduate a relatively small number of students but again the momentum is there I think that this year I know we are looking at graduating something like four or five PhD students so we are contracted to measure offer measurement verification for Escom municipalities as I mentioned and then our spring of company is the first which is a credit by the Centers against international standard organization 17 or 20 and they in this format we are running something like 250 project 238 plus about 20 from the municipalities if we look at the harp so the problem oh it’s going to be a little more impressive so we started in 2008 for the first year of initiation so we this is coming from the the audited report organized party st at the end of 2013 and then it is measured against the number of journal publications conference publications registered student graduates research decrease the length of modules externally funded project amount of external funding and of course very importantly the

proportion of female student and the proportion of the previous disadvantaged individuals with all registered students so if you look at some of the key lambis you see that look at the number here so we start with a very modest number of student of 27 this is this is a across three departments in electrical engineering mechanical engineering and chemical engineering and also a few students from other universities because this is a national heart and then these pros lively until of course this is the only figure up to the end of 2013 hundred thirty six and then the publications are also close keeps going that one and then the other other last figure is these two sets of figures so we’re sitting as 15 female students and then 15 percent of female students and then this percentage okay there’s a constant increase of percentages and then it is tabulated a bit but it’s very difficult to get engineering female student to trust me so now comes to the second part of my presentation so I want to come back all these last could you think that we’ve done – we still have option so do is steer set was load shedding every Monday to Friday and then possibly Saturday as well so over the past few month so everybody is hit by this and then there’s a lot of popular options that was published or somehow you know comes to our attention so you have option number one which is probably not very popular but it’s SQL Chetty but remember that the load shedding is one of the EDS M interventions so I I listed here who proposed this so this is not in absolute terms you know this is only for my personal use because the message first comes to me from these sources so it’s not less it’s not necessarily that they are first the promoters so the second one is the pool pump and the Geezer control by smart meters proposed by the former CEO and then he reckons that if we would have these smart meters installed then we would do load shedding in a completely different fashion and then time zones of course this is coming from a lambo of sources from the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry also come from the internal university Pretoria workshop organized by the Faculty of economics and management and then together with the industrial partner a HR and also business to use shifts from same South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry and also switch off street lights of course coming from the public you have a up row of people talking about streetlights burning during the day and then self generation and then this is from the Cape Commerce Chamber of Commerce and then coal gasification which I don’t know there must be early promoters but I think it this is why I want to put it under my name because today if you read a star newspaper so these are news proofing said that we propel propel promote coal gasification technology diesel generator and the energy conservation CFL LED solar water heating behavior change and promoting the use of LPG also from Cape Commerce of Chamber of Commerce high persistence with solar and wind solutions also from the public or maybe more individualized so if you look at this list and then we can go back to look at what s come or what January Villa the country is doing so it will be very interesting to see that this list makes up a lot of shortfalls that we see in the existing programs let’s go back to esken CDM program so S County ETS M solutions I won’t put my personal judgments is a very comprehensive and a very very sustainable way of looking at the AED same side this is the work plan in 2012 so you see that these solutions is very comprehensive if you look at the technology key in terms of three levels of priority and then it look as opposed the energy solutions and demand solutions and then the solution spreads out from the industry sector commercial agriculture and residential and then the both these programs into a suite of products or models for the market to choose in terms of ESCO performance contracting standard offer so I listed

210 they are actually more than 10 so and then for each of these interventions they have a brief description they also tell you what is the fair of these interventions so of course that you have a similar things for 2013 and then 2000 previously in 2011 of course 2014 nothing much happened because the money was exhausted from there in NYPD 3 so if we look back at s comes a dsm program so we could easily realize that s from es EU DSM focus a lot on conservation and load management very limited our self generation so there’s a little bit about cogeneration and then there is a little bit about power back but it was felt I think at the National Treasury didn’t approve this part so there’s definitely not much in few substitution so we don’t see much of that and then there’s a new incentive starting from November 2012 2013 travel our income tax incentive which is a taxi incentive look at energy efficiency improvement you have a rebate or incentive in terms of tax of forty five cents per kilowatt of save during the sustainability sustainability period of one year of course the good news coming out from 25th of February is that this rate is going to be raised to 95 cents per kilowatt hour so these incentive scheme does allow few substitution and self generation to a limited extent and then the new announcement does allow cogeneration so the previous screen doesn’t allow that one but the current the current scenario is that 12-hour tax incentive in our opinion is that you still need a lot of buy-in from the stakeholders so maybe these raise of the 95 cents per kid without will make a difference but we can also look at these shortfalls in terms of the port classification so let’s look at reclassify ETS m/s come a DSM projects so we look at all this and then this is the class of patient done by s come EDD say so then it is classified into behavior change operational and matching or equipment and then they have also given the possibilities or the potentials of their savings for each of these big categories so you could see that there is almost some kind of matching with our classification so you’re looking at the behavior change mostly look at the loft lost or theft in terms of behavior and an operation you look at more about these sides and the matching you look at the assisting compiler combination and the equipment you look at more at that side so you could see that what we are lacking so we’re lacking about the program’s addressing the skills that can be translated into the soft kilowatt-hours and that we are looking at left of maintenance and we are looking at the lack of introduction of new technologies and a few switching in my opinion is a new type of technology intervention so let’s just go back to see so you see that we we look at these list of options again so this is more about the National lash and white load shifting proposals and then you have conservation of switching the lights and then energy conservation in terms of behavior change etc and then there are five big categories proposed either addressing few switching or self generation for instance self generation and then these two about a few switching maybe there’s also component for self self generation so I will try to go through this list very briefly and then I want to evaluate how feasible are these options and then I will probably last the hour focus a little bit more about coal gasification enter and the LPG for cooking and everything so in order for me to do a fair evaluation so I want to evaluate all these options in terms of affordability and the timeframe and the potential of energy savings in terms of affordability I look at the capital investment and the operation and maintenance cost so in capital investment I regard I regard it as low if you’re talking about less than 1 million per megawatt which in popular terms you look at 1 Peter watt 1000 Rand that’s what I regard cheap so if it’s between 1,000 to 5,000 per kilowatt-hour then we regard it to be median or acceptable and then I

regard it to be very high if it is over 10 million rent per megawatt of saving of course Madhu P is very expensive because it sits at 35 million the operational costs I regard it as low if the kilowatt hour cost is below one rent because we know we are currently paying around one rent depending on how much you consume so sometimes we pay 1.6 Rand per kilowatt hour to the municipalities but we know that esko’s generating cost is about 30 cents per kilowatt hour so then I regard the maintenance and operational cost to be acceptable or slightly higher if it is between 1 to 5 red polka dot R and anything above 10 Rand per kilowatt hour it is expensive okay and then the timeframe I regard to be it to be shortened if we can implement immediately up to 3 months and then if it is between 6 months to 3 years I say it’s a medium term and if it’s longer than 5 years then we regard it as long term of course then I will comment on their estimates estimated savings for each of this let me start with low Chetty so capital costs no operational costs no because it’s a simple switch but then timeframe is also very short-term so we are talking about seconds or milliseconds and the savings we meet 1000 to 4000 depending on the demand definitely it is not affordable because in no sense it’s affordable to s Co because s guy is going to lose revenue and then is not affordable to anybody then smart meters as a smarter way of doing load shedding so the idea was the proposal from from the former CEO was to introduce smart meters because the smart meters comes with it is a small switch inside it one and then you can use that one to switch off the swimming Pam swimming pool pump during the day the idea was that of course then he further elaborate that you can introduce another smart switch to go with the smart meters to switch off the visas so you can see that we can easily do your calculation you start smart meter law nowadays a simple one with that Smart Switch is about 2500 class installation you’re talking about 3,000 rams and then you you you’re talking about a typical swimming pool pump of 700 watt and then of course there’s a traverse diversification or what we called utilization factor so we estimate to be 15% of the swimming pool part that you can switch off or they are functioning at that time so it is very high so if you do that it’s about 28 million per megawatt hour per megawatt and if you want to go further to add another switch okay so you can use the second option is to use that one to control this the the water heaters of course then you are talking also about 15 percent of utilization so which is also very high 10 million per megawatt and then if you want to do both then you’re talking about 4,500 yen per smart meter and / – smart switches and then you’re looking at about 11 met million per megawatt so all these options are very high in terms of capital investment the timeframe of course becomes us of problematic problems so it can be a median if it is a small size but if you’re talking about large quantities it can take years to do that we know the difficulty of the network the savings of course it is almost neutral it only shifts the demand but the problem is that in order to say 4,000 megawatts we need 10 million household I don’t know whether we can have 10 million household in the country that has a swimming pool in each of the household and a water heating so this one it is a very expensive option but of course there you are sitting with a very good synergy the operational causes is it’s none so timezone this is a very attractive option so you introduce four times ohms or two depending on different proposals so we’re not quite sure about the capital investment I guess that it will involve a large amount of logistics and they it will cause a lot of disorder of the country but the maintenance there is no maintenance so you get used to it you go the timeframe is median and then I think that you need to care gradually introduce that one so the the best scenario is that you introduce that in a

matter of six months and then of course then once you’re introduced you have to keep that for a long time but the savings so this is a world talking in a study so if you want to time zoom shifting you can look at about 1% of pitch shift which is about 400 megawatt at the moment so which is not enough for us to cope with Stage one load shedding but it is a very interesting proposal and then affordability I think if somebody has to comprehend their affordability here switch off street lights definitely we can tick all the boxes nothing it is affordable timeframe immediate you can do that the savings potential we’re not quite sure but it can be massive because almost everywhere you go and almost every day you see large blocks of street lights burning during the day of course dinner Evelyn’s you have a novice street light was completely switched off feel switching to natural gas this is a the MTN initiative so this is a very very capital-intensive investment so this employs what we call IGCC interpreted gas combined turbine so if you look at these costs which is about 25 20 to 25 percent more expensive than mature people but this is a very very clean technology so it’s been promoted all throughout the world and then Eskom has got this technology as well but then MTN decided to do few switching so they want to go on their own so the savings is very very promising so they’re looking at about one-third of s compare reduction and in timeframe also acceptable and then it has a long-term effect on MTA and then the operational cost is it’s quite acceptable about 87 cents per kilowatt hour diesel generation this is everybody is thinking about this because all my Labor’s are talking about diesel generation it is only covered by the regulation of that body corporate that you have to choose a good product and then so it can be applied to residential and industrial and then the capital investment is fine because you’re talking about one kilowatt hour 2008 so then the operational cost is a problem so our information reviews that you need to spend about 3 to 6 grand per kilowatt hour but some people say Leda can’t kill as high as 15 grand per kilowatt hour but we regard to be very high so we would reckon this is a short-term consolation definitely is not a long-term college solution timeframe very short and then the savings potential interestingly son Eddie has a study that the industrial installed capacity for diesel generators through other country you can looking at the three thousand megawatt to three thousand five hundred megawatt which is equivalent to a full-scale Power Station so can we harvest this this part of it install capacity there is the question mark solar water heating so we are looking at very high capital investment 30 million per megawatt which is probably on par with the 2p but the operational cost is very low and then the timeframe it was supposed to be very short because there was a 1 million solar water heating program he said that by the end of 2015 we should have 1 million solar water heaters wrote out but we are sitting at about I think a less than 300,000 at the moment and then it can be very long-term because of that issue because they have too many problems and also the effect of this is long term once you install that if properly maintained that you can do that for about 20 years but the problem is their savings this is the myth because the 1 million solar water program was designed to suppose to save one power plants from Eskom but somehow we calculated many many times you need about 8 to 10 million household to do that again we are sitting with whether we have also the solar water heaters that can be wrote out for 10 million households so the PV panel again this is a very expensive in our opinion but it can be reduced with the introduction with more supplies and more costly effective technologies at 60 million to a megawatt so you see that this is the highest thing any the maintenance cost of course operational cost is very low

and then the timeframe is very short short given the current circumstances there is few plenty of supply of solar water panels and the power electronics but in a long term so it can become a long term project because if everybody goes for this one anywhere probably jammed the whole traffic the the applicability of course is long term once you put in there you’re looking at about five years so the only problem now is is this affordable or not for some people so so we have assisting installed about two weeks ago just a short distance away from University of Pretoria and then this is what the guy caught loadshedding Moses so he saves you from the s comes no Chetty so this Lister this is a household which is about four to five million and then the monthly expenses on the Elector the consumption is about one thousand kilowatt hour and then then he installed a pv of a picked him out of three kilowatt with a battery pack installed in in the garage looks like and then the capital cost is about 2,000 K at 200 K and then you have a saving about 15 kilowatt per day and they you are looking at about reducing 50% of your bail so the calculation from this guy all from this gentleman is that I have a home know about 4 million let me take out 5% of it then I service my bond so you can easily do a calculation that you spend additional 500 Rand in addition to your electricity bill and then you saves you from the s don’t know chatting and of course improve your security and then the keys can still do their homework during no chatting and then a last thing about this system is that there is a very interesting display online you can watch it over your cell phone of course it is also displayed in the system so that how the power flows from these poor parts from the AC to the node from the PV and from the battery so you could see this one definitely is during no Chetty because there’s no PV power it must be during the evening so there’s no AC power so the power comes completely from the battery so this is a very interesting one and of course a smart engineer will realize that we can probably make it flow in different directions so one of the option of course is make the power flow back to the grid which is currently possible but then given that you have a feed-in tariff of 2.1 rent to a megawatt two kilowatt hour it will probably make even better financial sense and then I want to also comment on that this power flow and the optimization of this power flow is one of the typical things that we do at scene s so we have at least two full-time PhD students and the two postdocs who are working on similar projects like this one so let me go to the last one few switching and feel switching specifically to reduce the heat amount so I want to make a statement let’s do few switching to reduce the heat demand so if we do a very quick analysis of the heat demand of South Africa so these are the study done by a Japanese and they we could see that the heat demand in the residential sector is about 40% of all the electricity part and then 70% of heat demands from the industry and then all these heat demands are currently satisfied by electricity let’s look at the efficiency and they why we propose few substitution so we can do an efficiency analysis so if we go from co2 electricity and to heat we lose so much so we’re talking about 64 34 % and then from co2 heat directly we are looking at about 87% of course this is very dirty because it’s a complete combustion process and then you can look at gas to heat which is also not very clean but it can be cleaned so you’re looking at a better efficiency but the from coal to gas to heat you’re looking at about 75% and then some of the guys in CSR are for instance then they can make it in a pallet front of 78% so our recommendation is that you reduce heat demand that was satisfied by electricity by burning gas or coal and then which

but the sense to burn coal to gas and then to heat because South Africa is sitting with steel sitting with a large reserve or coal so we have close to 70% of coal it’s gonna go it’s gonna stay with us for years and years to come so we know that we need to go to renewables but Coe is there and then if we look at the gas of course there are technologies to to implement it and then there is a proposal that we import gas from Mozambique so it is possible so this one is also a very attractive option the capital investment for a gas stove is almost nothing and the operational cost is almost nothing and then it is very affordable and then I want to give you a very specific example this is a the gas water heating which applies to the water heaters so this is the 2014 each award-winning product I hope that mr Lawrence phonetic is sitting around here yes okay so you see that this is the gas burner and then its feet from the normal LP gas and then to cut to improve the efficiency then Laura’s also recommend to couple the system with the solar panel so that you preheat the water so they improve the efficiency of course you’re looking at the capital investment you are talking about 23-thousand with the solar panels and about 11,000 without and then very attractive is the operational cost you’re looking at about 3.5 cents per liter of water in comparison with trial cents per liter from electricity so which makes a very very good sense Co gas certification and then the investment is about I think it acceptable in my opinion because yes you’re looking at about one to two million rand to a megawatt which is equivalent to the diesel generator and then the operational cost can be as low as ten cents per kilowatt hour which is about one third of s generating cost and then remember that I said this is a co2 gas to heat without going through the cycle of electricity so timeframe is also a medium because I have an example in from horse parade this is the tire factory so these factory invested about 10 million to have that system which paused the whole plant the furnace for about fourteen megawatt so you’re looking at the Davy coal consumption and then the gas production and I employs about 13 people in addition to their to their existing staff for the tire factory the construction only took about six months and they you are looking at about six month of payback so the guy I proposed this guy to look at 12-hour tax incentive and then we investigated the face abilities of travel and then the guy didn’t even bother is that I get my money back in six months why should I bother so in addition to that people might think that you will encourage to use coal so you’re going to use more coal no the metal effect is that if we’re going to satisfy these four thousand megawatt of power by replacing those power pie guests to co2 gas you’re looking at about six percent of reduction of the coal consumption so with this one I think that my time is also running up I would like to thank you for your attention and I’d also like to thank Nanette Smith and you team for the organization and the shaming and Lee dream for helping me to prepare the presentation thank you so much you you